Martingale on dice... It does seem to work this time ? (update after 1 month + update after 1.5 months)... NO


Betting naively...

The Martingale "system", is the most simplest betting system on binary outcomes, that I know of. It is based on a very simple premise: each time you lose, you double your bet. Very naively this would always work. Except that the real world is constrained by

  • Your bankroll not being infinite
  • The casino your playing has a maximum bet

Furthermore, Intuition gets into the way of the clear and simple math. Let me give an example. How likely do you feel that you will get 7 losses in a row, playing a simple provably fair Hi-Lo game ? Pretty unlikely, right ? Well simply put it the chances are  1 in 128  (1/0.5^7) that you will get such a losing streak... The amount of money you will be betting at the 7th time will be (assuming you stared from 1 $), also 128 $.

That being said, it still FEELS like a losing streak of 7 (or even higher) in a row is highly unlikely. And so I keep falling for it...

But still, why am I making a profit... ?

And sometimes I have the feeling that some of the "provably-fair" algorithms employed by the online casino's actually play into this sentiment. Sometimes I get the feeling that they are "programmed" to not have (too) many "same" outcomes in a row to avoid people shouting "this casino is not fair !!" 

Case in point: I have been playing classic dice now for a few hours (auto betting) every day for the last three weeks. Setting the auto betting settings to

  • minimum bet an amount of 10^-6 times lower than your bankroll (so 0.0001 %)
  • on win reset your bet amount
  • on lose, increase your bet amount by 110 % (100 % would also work, but I decided to try something different)

Granted, with this very, very low stakes and a (relatively) enormous bankroll the profits are marginal, but they are there and they are consistent ! By using a coin that is not worth so much (I use TRON) and the fact that the casino offers me the possibility to have a minimum bet of 10^-8 TRX, I am able to test the above mentioned strategy.

At this point (and I fully realize that I am jinxing it by writing this down...) I yet have to lose money using this strategy at this particular casino.

The testing continues....

I know, it goes against all my intuitions, maths and even my long experience of failing with Martingale, yet I am making a profit....

If you do not believe me, I understand. If you want you can try it yourself at LuckyFish casino. There are regular faucets.. So if you are lucky you can get some free coin to play with.

Good luck (and lets hope my luck holds up..) 

UPDATE after 1 month of playing (21st of October now)... It still holds ! Almost every day I did a few hours of this... Still making profit. Don't know how, don't know why. Don't care either, as long as it works... I will keep you posted...

UPDATE after 1.5 months, (8 nov now).... It is apparent I fell for it again..... I got greedy and decided to let it plat on auto roll all night... Next morning, my winnings were gone... and I had lost some....So, all you doubters out there, you were right... I withdrew my remaining balance and put it to good use  at KuCoin.

For kuCoin I do have a very good tip. But that will be a story for next time...

Cheers,

B

 

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thoughts on how to earn your crypto currency
thoughts on how to earn your crypto currency

In this blog I will write my experiences from the time I entered the crypto space a few years back. I tried al lot of things (and bumped my head almost as often) to get free crypto, earn fast with HYIP, faucets, exchanges, mining etc. A few things in the long run worked for me. Hopefully my experiences are helpful for you too.

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