$RUNE has changed, for the better.
Gone are the days of violent 25% price swings intraday. Here to stay is a more mature, resilient, and, at least when priced against other major crypto (BTC & ETH), slightly less volatile asset.
$RUNE is growing up.
$RUNE is now in its 17th week out of the past 20 weeks trading in a remarkably tight range against Bitcoin. The RUNEBTC pair has changed hands between approximately 7500–8500 sats since the last week of Spetember 2022. The 3 outlier weeks saw the pair dip into the 6500 sat zone during the FTX collapse in November.
This impressive neutrality, and absence of volatility during one of the most volatile periods in the history of crypto deserves a closer look.
What Mr. Market seems to be telling us is that he has changed the way he values $RUNE. The DEFI market is now digesting the fact that the $RUNE price is a direct representation of the external assets it protects in the THORChain savers vaults and pools. Nothing more, nothing less. It’s math.
The deterministic pricing model used to derive a value for $RUNE based on all TVL on the THORChain protocol has created the first ever decentralized crypto index fund.
With it’s hard coded properties unwavering, $RUNE has persisted through speculative times in it’s early days, and it’s price has now become a more accurate representation of the major L1 assets in the THORChain vaults. As with most projects in DEFI, we all understand that growing TVL is the greatest price catalyst for a networks native token. However, even if deposits were to stop, $RUNE would track the price movements of the assets in the THORChain pools. Pool rebalancing applies buy pressure on $RUNE anytime BTC, ETH, BNB etc. increase in value. $RUNE should has been, and should continue to track the blue chip crypto market.
My name is Daniel and I’m a recovering Degen.
I responsibly and securely care for my family with little to no fiat in our bank accounts. Our life savings (outside the clutches of our IRA’s) is stored on our hard wallets and accessible 24/7.
After a brief stint as a BTC Maxi, and converting all the liquid assets I could convert into BTC in 2020, I inevitably ran out of fiat to continue to accumulate BTC.
I faced the hard truth that the only way I was going to grow my stack of sats was parting with some of them. So I reluctantly doled them out into shitcoins of all stripes. Enter $RUNE and my THORChad baptism.
Watching the BTC equivalent value of our portfolio fluctuate was exciting, but any drawdown was kept to a minimum, and I would scurry back into BTC to avoid losing too many sats or to lock in sat profits. These strategies worked well, but only because we were forced to spend and live off of our profits throughout the bull of 2020/21 minimizing the negative impact that the greed cycle inflicts on most traders in a bull market. Moving, traveling, and building a house is expensive, and so were some of my mistakes made being a Degen in early 2022. So, as a result of our life choices and decision to live unbanked and mostly on crypto we were completely sold out of the markets by March 2022.
After re-entering the market post Luna crash in mid June 2022, and accumulating throughout 2022, we are now 90% invested in $RUNE and some of the THORChain liquidity pools. The above mentioned maturity, and newly accepted “ETF” status for $RUNE, along with it’s discounted valuation against BTC was the main driver of my investment thesis pivot, and has me more bullish than ever. I now seek to increase my bag of $RUNE instead of sats, and I am quick to take profits out of other long tail assets and consolidate them into $RUNE just as I did with BTC in the bull. This paired with well timed entries and exits from the liquidity pools has proven to be a successful way to grow our bag of RUNIES.
In summary, I think the future is bright for THORChain and $RUNE. So much so, that I hold most of our liquid net worth in it. When the time comes, and $RUNE smashes through the tight channel it is currently trading in, significantly outperforming BTC, and regaining it’s historically higher valuations in the 25000–50000 sat range, I will ape all of our $RUNE into the BTC pool and let THORChain rebalance our portfolio going forward.
LFG!
