Bitcoin might be in for some trouble as we are closing on the end of the month fast. Let's try and see if we can find out what is happening.

The trends are pointing down

If we look at the Stochastic RSI on the two weeks chart for Bitcoin. We can see that it has just crossed down around the 20 line downwards. Typically the Stochastic RSI is a good indicator of trend and momentum. And the 20 and 80 lines respectively are the levels to keep an eye on. And with it already under the 20 line, or on it. Things can be very bumpy in the future.

But on the upside, it could be a fake-out. The big thing I want Bitcoin to do, to show me it is not on a downwards trend is to close this month's candle at $19,500 or above. This is because that is the level we have been holding as support for the past months, and historically there has been support at this level as well. 

But currently with Bitcoin sitting below $19,000, if it were to close below $19,500 then we would have to see if the next month's candle confirms this as well. Meaning that it also closes below the $19,500 level. Then it is extremely likely that the price will fall to the next level of support. And that level can be found at around $13,700. Crypto tweeter Pentoshi also puts the possible new low at around $12-14,000. Among other.

And I know there are a lot of ifs and butts with these things. A lot of, if this then we need to see the next one and so on. But as I am both new to this and trying to learn myself. I also just try and report back the info I find while researching. 

Edit: Bitcoin did have a massive rally back up to $20,000 during the night. So it is finally getting interesting.

Some rays of sunshine

There are however some rays of sunshine to be found. The first one is of course if Bitcoin holds the support at $19,500. That would be a very good sign indeed.  

The second thing is if we look at the Stochastic RSI on the 3-week chart. There we can see another pattern repeating. The pattern of a lower high, then a lower high, and then a lower high. But as we are nearing the bottom here as well we could possibly see a trend reversal here. And if we were to see a higher high. That would indeed be a very good sign.

And I know it is boring. But if we are able to keep the horizontal action going for a few more months. Allowing us to build a big solid foundation here. That means the next bull run has the best possible conditions for a massive run. Typically the better the base is the bigger the bull run can be.

In the next few years

When we look at the top Bitcoin had, we can see that it in fact was a double top. Something that I believe Bitcoin has never had before. But something that has had double tops, is the Dow Jones Index. And that has happened on two occasions. The first one was in the mid 60ies, and the second one was in 1999. And what followed there were several years of sideways movement. And what I mean by that is no new higher highs. But there are still fluctuations. 

Will Bitcoin spend a decade or more in sideways movement like the Dow Jones? Not very likely, as the crypto market is moving much faster. And the economy at large has also sped up. But it might mean that Bitcoin will spend 2-3 years locked in this pattern. Moving sideways, potentially going back up to $60k and then back down again, and repeating.

And that would mean that we might have to wait for the next Bitcoin halving before we can truly see a new bull run.

Hopefully, you have not found this post to be too heavy compared to my normal posts. Either way, please let me know if you would like to see more of these types of posts in the future. And as always, what you do with your money is non of my business. And please share your thoughts on the near future of Bitcoin. Are we looking at a new possible low? Or will it be more horizontal action?

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See you on the interwebs!

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