The Road Map of A Snowball -- Mycryptooutlook2022

Regulations

     I don’t remember which politician said it years ago, but I’ve never heard a truer statement about the future of crypto. They said, “If cryptocurrencies are even remotely successful, they will be regulated into obscurity.” Watching the world’s superpowers and their attitude towards crypto in 2021, one can see just how threatened they feel by this revolutionary technology. 

     China banned all crypto transactions, crypto mining, and it plans to keep it that way until they can figure out their own, government-backed crypto. Russia signaled they were exploring heavy regulations, only for their president to come out publically with a serious 180, which may have been a minor case of market manipulation but that’s another topic. The UK has had invasive regulations on the table, under the guise of ‘protecting the wealth of its citizens’, and the constant, divisive push and pull in America regarding crypto regulations have all worked together to make the crypto community a little hesitant, from big investors to little guys. This shows these governments understand quite well the potential blockchains hold, and they’re nervous. 

     Despite this, the market survives. Heck, some altcoins are still performing hella well with a growth of several thousand percent. People have decided they want more of this technology in the future, not less. As 2022 continues, we’ll see the battle of regulations play out. 

     In some areas, we’ll see tightening of restrictions; most likely countries will beef up their Know Your Consumer laws or their version of it, taking the stance of 'if we can’t stop the activity, we can at least monitor it extensively.' The powers that be will try to make the Defi and crypto markets into what the banking and traditional financial systems are currently, but not all at once. Little by little. They’ll take an inch here, a few centimeters there, but little by little they will attempt to take away financial freedom. 

     The question is, in democratic countries, will people let that happen or will they vote with all they have? And even if a government succeeds in limiting or entirely preventing its citizens from using crypto, they probably won’t be successful for long. Crypto is a snowball that has started rolling down the mountain, and it doesn’t matter how much governments, banks, or other financial institutions want it to stop. It’s not stopping.

A Global Community

     Part of the beauty of the crypto community is the foundational, decentralized nature of it all, but that decentralization is worldwide now. No single country can contain the crypto market at this point. Which is good, but it can also be a double-edged sword. What happens in one part of the world can affect the entire market. Tensions in Ukraine can make investors anxious, real estate market troubles in China can cause coins to continuously close in the red, a natural disaster in the Philippines leads to an entire sector of the market plummeting. We are all inexorably tied together, for better and for worse.

     Which means, as the crypto community grows and solidifies, we are going to become increasingly aware of global issues and trends, so we can make more informed investing decisions. Is there an election coming up in Taiwan that could affect my holdings? Are students planning to protest in India and for how long? If that Korean tech company is found guilty, how many coins will be affected? By the end of 2022, more and more members of the crypto community are going to understand that we are all in this together.

The Fed

     Inflation, inflation, inflation. Inflation. After its meteoric rise since the start of the pandemic, will inflation ever get under control again? According to the Federal Reserve and their leader, Jerome Powell, you’re darn right it will. The Fed has signaled they want to raise interest rates several different times in 2022. And, in short, every time they do so it’s going to be a bit of a blow to the crypto markets. Traditionally, when interest rates rise, more volatile and risky investments are ignored in place of safer investments that nigh guarantee your return. I don’t believe the Fed is raising interest rates to mess with crypto, it will just be an unforeseen consequence. 

     However, the snowball has started rolling and it doesn’t matter how many rate hikes there are in 2022, the snowball ain’t stopping. The most these rate hikes will do is cause a temporary arresting of development, a slow down of current growth. Then investors will jump right back in. After the first hike in March, there may be a temporary standby phase, where investors wait a while to see how the markets will fare. But by the end of 2022, investors will know what to expect and refuse to be daunted by the Fed and their attempts to get a careening economy under control.

Household Names

     Bitcoin is no longer fringe. It’s not some cool, hip, new trend that the kids are getting into. At this point, Bitcoin is so popular your tech-illiterate Uncle is invested in it. The word Bitcoin is uttered on mainstream TV news channels, mentioned on the cover of Time Magazine, written on flashy ads that pop up on your phone. It’s a household name, like Kim Kardashian or Tom Brady. You may not like them—or it—but you know exactly who they are. As 2022 progresses, I believe we’ll see more coins become inarguably mainstream. We already have some contenders, like Ethereum and Litecoin, but as we continue other coins will establish themselves as forerunners of the pack. Come December 2022, coins like Solana and Polkadot will be just as popular, with smaller coins taking their place.

     I think this saturation through the population will be driven by the number of projects on each blockchain—with Solana currently leading, hint hint—and by the adoption of large corporations to allow their customers to purchase goods with those coins. Some places already take Bitcoin and Ethereum, but soon we’ll see companies partnering with blockchains like Polygon and Terra, allowing their customers to make purchases with those coins, further adding to their utility and popularity.

I’m telling you, that snowball is just picking up speed in 2022.

(image credit:https://ironboundtome.wordpress.com/2018/08/20/an-avalanche-spell-from-disneys-mulan/)

2022: More Momentum

     While there are a plethora of things against the crypto and Defi markets in 2022—dip after dip after dip—with all the future blockchain projects planned to release, with the growth of Bitcoin in traditional investments, and with the increased popularity and adoption, I don’t think there will be much to slow crypto markets down in the coming year.

Bityard

     Special thanks to Bityard for letting me share my vague, half-baked opinions about 2022, and for giving a charitable donation for my words. If you haven’t yet, I highly recommend you check out Bityard. Personally, while I do enjoy their exchange compared to others, it’s their Copy Trade feature and the clear presentation of data that I give two thumbs up. Consider signing up if only to use that feature. If you do choose to sign up, feel free to use this referral link.

     Think differently than I do? The same? What are you 2 cents?