You know what’s funny? Every time Bitcoin takes a dip, people get split into two camps, the ones screaming “this is the top” and the ones quietly stacking because they’ve seen this movie before. Right now with BTC slipping toward $113K, I can’t shake the feeling that this might be one of those dips we look back on as the last proper discount before the next run.
We’ve seen this play out in past cycles. In 2017, BTC dumped hard in September before blasting off to its all-time high by December. Same thing in 2020, nasty pullbacks on the way up, but anyone who bought those drops ended up laughing months later. History doesn’t repeat, but it sure does rhyme, and this $113K level feels a lot like one of those moments.
The futures chart adds spice to it. There was that big CME gap around $117K, and markets love to close gaps. Now that it’s filled, the conversation shifts. Instead of worrying about falling lower, people will start eyeing where the next pockets of liquidity are sitting, and spoiler, most of them are way higher. That’s usually when momentum sneaks back in.
What makes me more confident is the ETF flow. Even with all the noise, institutions are still buying more Bitcoin than miners can produce. We’re talking thousands of coins a day versus 450 newly minted. That supply squeeze doesn’t go away just because price dips. If anything, it makes dips like this even juicier for the big players who aren’t scared of short-term moves.
Meanwhile, on-chain tells a clear story: long-term holders aren’t budging. The big wallets are either sitting tight or adding, while retail traders panic-sell into every red candle. Same old story. The smart money uses fear as an opportunity, and that hasn’t changed.
Of course, macro is the wild card. Interest rates, dollar strength, stocks wobbling, all of that can sway Bitcoin short term. But zoom out, and the demand is still bigger than the supply. Every cycle, Bitcoin’s “floor” rises, and prices that looked insane a year ago start to feel cheap in hindsight.
That’s why I keep thinking $113K might be the last real discount before new highs. Maybe we chop sideways for a while, maybe there’s one more quick dip, but once the market flips from fear to greed, today’s prices will look like a gift. The only question is who’s brave enough to buy while it’s quiet.
