I searched a lot yesterday to understand why we had a 12% rise on BTC, and I found quite a few analysts who talk about a future drop in inflation which will be announced next Tuesday in 3 days, and it's tied to falling energy prices like oil.
I think the latest interest rate hikes will bear fruit next Tuesday to bring inflation down.
The Price market always anticipates an event or a news, while waiting for the results of the inflation rates it will either be down and in this case the market will appreciate or up then the drop on risky assets like BTC will be inevitable.
The annual inflation rate in the United States has slowed more than expected to 8.5% in July 2022, from a 40-year high of 9.1% reached in June, we will see if the analysts are right and the result will be in favor of our king BTC and his prince ETH.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi
The price of oil has been falling since its ATH on March 7, 2022 at $138, it's an indicator to measure inflation, so if it's bearish this is a good sign for the S&P 500 and BTC and if it's bullish, so the inflation will continue to rise which will push the FED to raise interest rates which the market will not appreciate too much.
Yesterday's Weekly close in oil in high confluence towards a possible rejection via multiple indicators:
- The support at $86.70 as old resistance.
- the bounce back 61.8% fib as support.
- The candle with the long wick and a small body that shows the buyers are still there.
- The candle close above MA 62 as support.
- The bearish wedge in an uptrend has a good chance of breaking from above to confirm the bullish flag.
I think the S&P 500 and BTC will be bullish at least in the short term as long as oil with the DXY consolidates or continues to fall, but for now nothing is confirmed as a signal of a future bear market on the DXY or oil!!!
https://www.tradingview.com/x/edYdzEvc/
The rise in the dollar DXY is supported by volumes on the OBV, but in divergence with the MACD and the RSI, so to see if we will have confirmation of the large bearish divergence in the overbought zone of the RSI above 70 ?
The support zone between 104.5 to 105.32 if the price will bounce back above it we will remain Bullish but if it will not hold the support and we will have a close below 104.5 it's possible that's the beginning of a reversal towards a DXY in Bear market and the return of the Bull run on the BTC given the negative correlation!
https://www.tradingview.com/x/e3DO5mp2/
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