I don't share the Bitcoin Balances on Exchanges very much, but what I noticed in the bear market the whales accumulate a lot and then for a moment they start sending their BTC to the exchanges to sell them and take profits, so what I expect is a massive arrival of BTC on the exchanges as they have done several times in the past before dumping.
If we were in a bull run with a balance of BTC on the exchanges in negative it's a very good bullish signal, but in the bear market it's simply the whales accumulating to be able to dump those who want to buy and who will sell in loss, an example like Cathie Wood, 3AC, LUNA, and Celcius, and finally to allow big whales to buy like Blackrock when everyone is going to be bearish.
The key area to watch on the S&P 500 between 3900 to 3920, with the Ichimuku cloud, the MA 62 and the 61.8% of the fibo, if we go over all its obstacles, it will be the trigger for a reversal bullish on Bitcoin at least in Daily and then to see in Weekly!!!
https://www.tradingview.com/x/HCxaBzFL/
The market is like a shaker that takes us in all directions, before bringing out a new cocktail each time.
The 30K or the 10K or nothing for months in a range between 15K to 25K?
I'm for the third proposal, and it suits me to take trades in grid trading, you just have to find the right horse to bet on.
Many will go out of cryptos if it doesn't move enough, and others will be in depression and hunger, it's market cycles, capitulation is just the beginning, sorry to be bearish, but that's the market at the level of fundamental and technical analysis that goes to a decline in BTC, when I analyze I don't have feelings or a love for a direction, I think like a robot programmed to act at such a situation and especially based on the mistakes I've made in the past, finally the biggest is greed that kills more people than the sword!
The longs in power 🔥
I see all over Twitter and YT bullish analysis on BTC and S&P 500 and I see it's also talking about a DXY dollar index crashing to trigger our crypto bull run.
I'm bearish, it's not because I hope for a few things, trading is not hope, it's only probabilities, the dominant trend in Weekly is bearish, the market always shows its hand which is bearish at the moment, but for a trend reversal you need more confirmations compared to a trend following.
The biggest mistake that the majority make and that I have also made for years is that I would tell myself that the price is too oversold or overbought so I would try to anticipate the rise or the fall, but I I finally learned that the price is never too expensive or too low, the trend can continue again and again, and it is visible on the RSI which can remain for a long time in the area below 30 or above 70.
The Dollar is very strong, the S&P 500 in a downtrend, inflation up, interest rates in favor of the dollar which is not in our favor on the BTC, so I don't see how we can trigger a bull run with a bad economy??? not to mention the war, the Covid in China and the rising oil and electricity in Europe which is becoming very expensive.
From 100X leverage to 1X leverage just recently.
I remember my beginnings, I dreamed of becoming a millionaire in a few days with the 100X leverage and I understood in two trades of a violent liquidation less than a minute and the second in 5 minutes it was on volatile cryptos in end of 2018 I started trading futures on Bitmex.
After I went to 50X I got liquidated in minutes, and took a break to figure it out.
A few months later I switched to the leverage between 25X and 35X it was a permanent stress with big losses on the SL almost close to liquidation, I took a second break to study this business and train myself.
So I decided not to trade above 10X anymore, well I took losses but I survived with my trading account longer than when I traded with leverages above 10X, and then I decided a few months ago not to exceed 5X leverage again but despite it being a huge step from 100X to 5X I didn't stop there.
Finally I said to myself, I will first learn through my losses with small amounts of leverage between 1X to 3X it's like a quality level of trade, if it's a high quality trade I would put the leverage 3X and if it's risky I would go with 1X to 2X leverage, and the best for the end is grid trading which I see as DCA in non-stop mode, it allows me to avoid big losses since I buy and I sell on steps, and also I wouldn't take much of the winnings but there is a bonus on each round trip of the price that the robot buys and sells in it.
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