Still relevant the Long squeeze to the south until 19.5K with the 2 giant peaks close to the price.
The dates of the next 3 news items to watch that will influence volatility.
- The unemployment rate tomorrow: 07/10
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate
- The inflation rate in a week: next Thursday 13/10
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi
- The next interest rate hike in 27 days on Wednesday 02/11
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/interest-rate
https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html
I'm not an economist but I try to understand the impact of unemployment on inflation with interest rates to prepare for a pump or a dump.
What I understood that if the unemployment rate will drop, then we will have more people working and who will have strong purchasing power, so we will have more demand than supply, which means that inflation will not drop. not enough as analysts predicted (from 8.3% to 8.1%), finally the Fed will be forced to raise interest rates even stronger between 0.75% and 1%
In the opposite case of rising unemployment it will help inflation to fall and then the Fed will be less aggressive in raising rates, and this is the best scenario to prepare for the start of a bullish reversal.
I don't know if you agree or not, I'm curious to have your feedback, and correct me if I'm wrong.
1- It's possible to have the same scenario as August 05 and 10 with falling unemployment rates and falling inflation, it's just going to be a little green for a week or two, while waiting for bad news and then the decline will follow on the S&P 500 and BTC.
2- In the case if unemployment is up and inflation more than expected, we can have a bit of red tomorrow and then green until next Thursday to end with red.
3- The best scenario is that unemployment is up and then inflation is down, but for a change in structure from bearish to bullish on the S&P 500 it takes more than that at the macro level.
My Scenario is the number 1, and these are only probabilities & speculation!!!
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