There are some days when I pay attention to the market.

And then there are days when I pay attention to what the Federal Reserve is saying.

Today is one of those days.

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is scheduled to speak at the Jackson Hole economic symposium, and investors around the world are waiting to hear what he says about inflation, interest rates and the U.S. economy.

Personally, I think the interesting part isn't whether Warsh says “rates will rise” or “rates will fall.”

I want to hear how he thinks about inflation.

That matters because inflation is still well above the Fed's 2% target. The latest PCE inflation reading was 3.7% in July, while some Fed officials have already questioned whether current interest rates are restrictive enough.

And this is where things get interesting.

Markets Are Waiting for a Signal

Warsh has taken a different approach to communication compared with previous Fed chairs.

He has avoided giving investors much forward guidance.

I actually understand why.

The economy can change quickly. A central bank shouldn't promise something today and then completely reverse itself a few months later.

But there is a downside.

When the Fed doesn't explain what it is watching, markets start guessing.

And markets hate uncertainty.

Right now, investors are trying to figure out whether the Fed could become more aggressive if inflation stays high. Some market pricing has even started reflecting the possibility of a rate hike later this year.

That's why I think today's speech could be important.

One Speech, Many Markets

When people hear “Fed speech,” they often think about stocks.

I think that's too narrow.

A change in rate expectations can move the dollar, Treasury yields, gold, stocks and crypto almost at the same time.

For example, if Warsh sounds more hawkish than investors expect, Treasury yields could move higher.

The dollar could strengthen.

Gold could come under pressure.

Growth stocks could also struggle because higher rates make future earnings less attractive.

But if he sounds more comfortable with inflation cooling and leaves the door open to easier policy, we could see the opposite reaction.

That is why I'm not trying to predict every market move before the speech.

I'm watching the reaction.

What I'm Watching

For me, the biggest question is simple:

What would make the Fed raise rates?

If Warsh gives investors a clearer answer, markets may finally have something to work with.

If he stays vague, volatility could remain.

And honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if the first market move is completely reversed later.

That's usually how these events work.

So today, I'm not trading the headline.

I'm watching the dollar, Treasury yields and gold first.

Then I'll look at stocks.

Because sometimes the most important part of a Fed speech isn't what the chairman says.

It's what investors think he meant.