What's goin on, Investors? Let's talk about a post-halving worst-case scenario.
Bitcoin is 72 hours from making history
But not the kind crypto Twitter was praying for.
With the 2025 yearly candle set to close at 00:00 UTC on Jan 1, BTC is trading at ~$87 215 (as I write this, 4:41 am PST), down 6 % from the Jan 1 open, the first negative post-halving year since the network was launched in 2009.
If the number stays red, it would punch a hole in the most durable narrative in crypto: that Bitcoin’s price moves in predictable four-year bursts driven by the block-reward halving. As you may know, I blame ETFs and Wall Street for our current state of crypto uncertainty.
Calm before the candle
The weekend has been eerily quiet. Two-day volatility dropped to its lowest level since October, and hourly charts show price hugging the $87 500–$88 200 pocket. Friday’s $24 billion options expiry was a record sucked liquidity out of the market and producing the now-customary “fake-outs” on either side of the strike cluster.
Yet beneath the surface, bulls see a lifeline. A three-day bullish RSI divergence printed Sunday at the 38.2 % Fib retracement of the March–November rally. “The last two major bottoms formed after identical divergences,” trader Jelle told his 120 k X followers, posting a chart that shows the setup that preceded the 2020 COVID crash low and the 2022 FTX low.
BitBull CIO Joe DiPasquale
Seasonality tail-winds
Seasonality traders are betting that January inflows will ride to the rescue. “Institutions re-balance into under-performing assets at the start of the quarter,” said BitBull CIO Joe DiPasquale. “A break of the descending trend-line from the $108 k high could hit $100 k within weeks.”
Aksel Kibar, a chartered market technician, urges patience. “Volatility is cyclical,” he reminded subscribers. Following Q3’s 90% annualized volatility, a compression phase is “completely normal” as the market digests the move from $ 53k to $ 108k in three months.
The macro overlay
The stall coincides with the heaviest five-day ETF outflow on record: U.S. spot ETFs lost $825 million last week, turning the region into the single largest net seller, according to Glassnode. Grayscale’s GBTC led the bleed with $450 million in outflows, while BlackRock’s IBIT saw its first daily redemptions since inception.
Material Indicators co-founder Keith Alan says the yearly close, not intra-year wicks, will decide whether the four-year cycle thesis lives or dies. “We’ve had plenty of wicks beyond key levels in 2025; it’s the calendar close that gets etched into the history books,” he wrote on Christmas Day. Alan’s proprietary “Trend Precognition” indicator flips bullish only if the January monthly candle settles above $96 800.
What happens next?
Technicals:
• Immediate resistance: $89 200 (200-hour SMA)
• Bullish divergence target: $93 500 (December high)
• Year-open magnet: $96 800 (must close above to flip 2025 green) Derivatives:
• $1.8 billion in open interest sits between $90–95 k on major venues.
• Max-pain for the 27 Dec expiry is $86 k; dealers are long gamma, suppressing moves in either direction. On-chain:
• Exchange reserves fell to a six-year low, but whale inflows spiked Friday, hinting that larger wallets may be preparing to sell a year-end rally.
My Final Thoughts
A last-minute sprint to $100 k is still mathematically possible—BTC needs a 14 % move in three days, something it has done 18 times in the past five years. But if the candle closes red, analysts will spend Q1 2026 rewriting the halving playbook. The four-year cycle has already absorbed one shock, 2022’s macro meltdown, without breaking.
A second strike, this time from a post-halving year, could force the market to concede that Bitcoin has matured beyond its original cadence. For now, traders are glued to the tick-by-tick countdown, knowing that the colour of a single candle may redefine how the world prices the next four years.
Until next time, The Dark Sage singing out ✌️
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