It turns out that in nature, like it or not, many sets of numbers follow Benford's Law.

It happens in human social life, music, art... whatever you like. If its behavior is dictated by nature and not influenced by humans, then it will follow this law.

Benford's law, also called the Newcomb–Benford law, the law of anomalous numbers, or the first-digit law, is an observation about the frequency distribution of leading digits in many real-life sets of numerical data. The law states that in many naturally occurring collections of numbers, the leading digit is likely to be small.

Long story short: pick a set of numbers (possibly more than 100 numbers), isolate their first digit. You will find out a distribution of these digits very close to this:

As mentioned, this law works in music, in art, in sports, in human behavior, it's used to check your taxes statement and so on and so forth.

So I wondered, is it going to work for Bitcoin too?

Well, if its price is truly dictated by "natural phenomena" (yes, people demand/offer for goods is still something natural) and not by some human entity, then it should work.

I picked all Bitcoin prices since 18/07/2010 (very close to the first transaction on blockchain) up to today. Source was https://www.investing.com/crypto/bitcoin/historical-data

A bit of data processing and turns out that...

Yes, in fact bitcoin follows the law. Actually the distribution is very similar to the one of the population in 237 countries analyzed in the same way (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benford%27s_law#/media/File:Benfords_law_illustrated_by_world's_countries_population.svg).

The green line that you see is the precise trend of Benford's Law, while the blue columns are the actual Bitcoin data.

The trends almost overlaps.

You might say that still something is missing on the 1 and 2 digits. Well...could it be a clue about where Bitcoin price is going?

Is it going to stabilize forever around 10.000$ with a period down to 2.000$?

Or is it going to bump at 100.000$ passing through 20.000$?

I will leave this to more expert people. For the moment I just had fun with this.

Hope you had too and if you want to see more coins analyzed in this way, thumbs up!

Cheers!