There was a tight area between 99 and 106 in DXY. Since we got rid of the downtrend, the upward price dynamics above the moving average have been maintained. Trump trade continues here. Therefore, as long as DXY stays above 105, it seems that Trump trade will take DXY up a little more. DXY has been going up strongly for about 2-3 months with Trump purchasing his policies in advance. This movement will not be permanent in the upward direction throughout 2025, I do not think that a DXY that can go to 111 will be permanent, I see this as a selling opportunity. If we move on to two-way technical analysis, DXY, which continues to stay above 105, maintains its discipline to stay upward in a way that will make 108.80 intermediate and 111.40s the main target. I do not think that the beginning and end of the year will be the same in 2025, according to my own perspective. Because Trump will sit in the seat on January 20, it will start strong, but especially after the second half of the year, the needle may turn slightly towards the euro. Right now, the euro is weak and the dxy is strong due to both the fundamental pressures in the euro zone and the Trump trade. Below 105, these targets will seriously be put into the refrigerator in a temporal sense, and below 105, the dxy will return to the region where it is stuck, 105 - 101. Therefore, if there is an investor trading dxy here, they should follow the 105 level as support. Above 105, 108.80 - 111.40 will be the process target in terms of technical analysis. I personally expect the moves towards 111.40 to encounter a serious seller above, and I read this region as a selling opportunity in a relative sense. Below 105, the needle will turn down.
Of course, this picture has also created pressure on the gold front. Especially with the emergence of Trump's name, the US election on November 5, the dollar index increased. Gold lost value because it had broken record after record the week before and Bitcoin broke record. Now let's see how much pressure this picture will continue to create on the gold front. Of course, another reason for the pressure on gold when Trump came here is the strong messages that he will end the Russia-Ukraine War, which created the possibility that this geopolitical risk could be removed from the table. There is a very serious and very clear trend in the weekly chart of ounce gold. When we threw a Fibonacci on the decline scale we made between $ 2000 and $ 1810 for about 6-7 months in 2023, we clearly put a needle on Fibonacci 3.618, the peak of 2790 on October 31 last month. It maintains the trend above the 21-week moving average. Therefore, we tested the deterioration condition of the enthusiastic pricing and strong trend we experienced in ounce gold in 2024 with the 21-week moving average last month with 2530.
If we do not have the same performance in 2024 in ounce and the story of expectations suddenly going up, we can manage risk management with 2590 - 2516. It was very strong in the past from 1900 to 2500, it stayed for a few months and now it is very strong here too, now it can stay in this region for a while. This graphic may want to rest a little bit, with this sleeping band below 2590 - 2516 especially 2516, and above 2721 - 2781. Then, if we go above 2780 and that 3000 dollar movement that we see in general expectations, surveys and reports exceeds 2781 in terms of carrying cost and momentum, I will say that 3000 dollars are gradually approaching us in terms of time. Otherwise, I think that for a while, the ounce of gold is going to enter a modeling, a sleeping process here in the 2780 above 2590 or maximum risk 2516 band. If we are going to trade upwards, I think there will be an appetite for gold ounces again above 2721. Especially as we approach 2516, I think this is a technical opportunity. I would say that the short-term upward trading discipline has started above 2721. If 2781 is passed, I would say it is time to talk about gold.
The last few weeks of movement that could not go above 2721 will be stuck in the 2721 - 2603 band. It seems that pricing will remain somewhat suppressed by keeping the 2580 risk on the radar in the 2720 - 2603 band. Especially Trump's statements on Monday regarding the Russia - Ukraine War are one of the most important reasons creating the weakness. Because there is a great desire for peace. Therefore, the wild rise of a year here has taken a rest. I can say that a correction risk, the 2603 - 2580 risk continues for those who make costs from very low levels here. Unless 2721 x 2 days occur, this place may continue to print 2721 above, 2603 - 2580 below. Above 2721, I read this chart upwards.
There is a similar situation in silver. 1,618 of the $29 peak and $17 decline were passing through $35. Here, the needle came to approximately $34 - $34.5. When it reached each Fibonacci level, it completed and corrected the target of that trend. The chart says there is full harmony between the lower indicator and the price, and the price continues to remain under pressure. Silver will be stuck at 28.60 - 31.70. This is the area where I got up from 22.5 and reached 35, if you won, you won, now you will wait for me to sleep. These things happen with the trend, they do not happen according to your whim. When the trend is over, you either trade the band or if there is no trend, you buy and carry. I think that this will be an important technically eroded area for all investors who could not participate in the $22.5 - $35 movement with all the pullbacks towards 28.60 - 26.40. I think that price is a smoothed technical suitability zone of 28.60 - 26.40 band. If we are trading silver against the risk of falling, we should always have a spare money on the side. Because that risk continues. Every price returns to its short or long trend. We always make a new peak by returning to the trend. Silver will be squeezed in the 28.60 - 31.70 band. The period it won from 22.5 to 35 was a winning period. Now it is in the sleeping period. All pullbacks towards 28.60 - 26.40 can be a smoothed cost zone for those who could not participate in the 22 - 35 exit. Unless it sees a two-day close above 31.70 - 32 dollars, it will exit after the zigzag balances with the maximum risk of 31.70 - 32 above and 28.60 - 26.40 below. But it takes time, this is not something that will happen right away. The lower indicator does not currently say that silver will turn up in 3-5 days unless there is a geopolitical risk.
2024 was quite tight for Brent oil. In other words, there is a pricing stuck in the $93-$70 band. Very interesting things can happen in oil in 2025. There can be very serious price fluctuations. In other words, I do not expect oil like in 2024. 2025 will not be a tight and tight pricing like in 2024, but a very volatile pricing and there will probably be a break in oil. 2025 starts with this squeeze in the 83.80-68.80 band. In other words, we can stay in this band until the first quarter of 2025. In this band because it seems to us that the squeeze in a more technical sense will continue for a while longer. However, there is a squeeze, an accumulation in the lower indicator. There is an energy accumulation here. Therefore, I think that Brent oil will continue in the 68.80-83.80 band for a while.
Then there will be a break here, now if we generally look at these breaks as a possibility, there are reports expecting oil below 60 dollars on the fundamental side with the supports we get from the lower indicators etc., 40-50 dollars. Now if 68.80 is broken and multiple closings start below, those reports may turn out to be correct. In other words, a pricing towards there may start. But I put aside the possibility of sags that may occur towards 68.80 and/or below this chart, I read it as an opportunity. It may fall below 68 dollars to 63-60 dollars. Technically there is that risk but I read it as an opportunity and I don't know what will feed it in this chart above 83.80 in 2025, will there be a new geopolitical development, will there be a different interpretation on the OPEC side, we will all see it together, I don't know if there will be something very different regarding American policies, but I expect oil to peak towards 101-108 dollars in 2025 and come back.
The 34-week moving average and the 55-week moving average feed Bitcoin's trend from below. The trend-riding discipline supports the upward direction as long as it remains above 96,100. In this sense, as long as the current movement in Bitcoin remains above 96,100, there may be a short-term spoiling of 113,844 and medium-term of 125,000. Trump trade continues here as well.
The chart saw 104,192, which is the 2.618 Fibonacci 10 days ago, and from there it returned to the 34-day moving average. They put it to sleep in the 95,000 - 104,000 region, they waited for the 34 and 55-day moving averages to come up significantly. In other words, they actually corrected it horizontally. The trend is supported and fed by the 34-day moving average and the 21-day moving average. There are two moving averages that carry the price. One is the 21-day moving average 99000, 34-day moving average 97000, $2000 support zone, this is the support line. As long as it stays above this zone, technical analysis will continue unless something like this is broken, if it is broken, this chart will not listen to Trump, I tell you. As long as it stays above this, 113500 break, 125266 is bitcoin's target. The price is going parabolic. My warning here is that if 99000 - 97000 is broken, parabolics will hurt a lot. In the 100% movement where it came from approximately 67000 to 103000, the lower indicator also supports the trend with all its power, while there is no power in the lower indicator in the movement above 102000 - 104000. This lower indicator also warns the price in terms of managing the position by doing some risk control in a relative sense, that is, by increasing the risk coefficients.
Ethereum is still struggling to overcome the most critical resistance level. Bulls have been trying to overcome 4041 for 3 weeks, but there is no closing above it for 2-3 days. 3790, 3425 are the main trend support areas. You will say that bears are coming under 3790 to 3425. As long as it stays above 3790, 4041 has been a resistance for 3 weeks. I emphasize that it is important to pass this place only in terms of supporting the momentum. 4413, 4869 and 5921 will continue to be the targets of Ethereum as long as the 3790 commentary is not broken. If 3790 is broken, the risk of 3425 or even more painful 2930 may occur. Result; As long as it stays above 3790, 4415, 4869 and 5921 will continue to be the main two targets. Let me remind you that the targets I have stated below 3790 will default and the game's current direction will turn downwards in a robotic manner, and that the technical analysis that gives these targets will underline it in red as a risk note.
A classic double top was formed in Solana. The 2021 - 2024 3-year suffering period returned what it received in dollar terms to its waiting investor by coming to the same price 3 years later. But it did not introduce a new high of 3 years ago to investors, the opposite of bitcoin. The resistance where the first exit movement, the first trend ended, is now support, $ 206. Therefore, if you say that I maintain my beliefs about Solana, I believe, I have expectations, I respect it. But let me tell you this. Above $ 206 is the trend, below is the deepening of the correction according to non-fundamental technical analysis. I also like Solana in terms of projects, but I have not traded a single one so far. We will follow $ 206 as a pivot support. Staying above $206 is weak, controlled, not eager, because for a new momentum to come, the previous peak limit needs to be passed, that is $259 or 259.7 to be exact. In my opinion, this chart is very controlled, very careful, in the $259 to $206 band, in a very extreme way so that I do not give back what I bought to the market, it is now at a point where I need to follow this chart sensitively. As long as it stays above 206, positive 259 can be seen once, it can be renewed, so the intermediate target, 327 short-term main target continues as long as 206 works. Below 206, the correction deepens to reach 167 and 151 in the 4-hour and daily close.
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