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10 hours ago 1 minute read 0 comments Edwin Munyui $0.05
Kalshi raised another $1 billion this week at a $40 billion valuation, up from $22 billion in May. The company’s latest Series G funding round, co-led by Sequoia Capital and Wellington Management, brings its valuation to eight times the $5 billion r...
2 Oct 2026 1 minute read 0 comments Edwin Munyui $0.10
Prediction markets closed September with $78.2 billion in notional volume, marking the largest month ever compared to July’s record which sat at $56.4 billion. We’re putting together our Q3 report, and this week’s letter draws on three fundamental c...
11 Sep 2026 3 minute read 0 comments Edwin Munyui $0.04
Prediction markets are building distribution faster than they are building standards for how their odds should be presented. A 70 per cent probability can look self-explanatory, but the number alone does not tell the audience the exact contract wordi...
28 Aug 2026 2 minute read 1 comment Edwin Munyui $0.11
It’s been four weeks since the last Prediction Frontier Weekly. We spent most of that time in the trenches, refining what we’re building and digging into the question that followed the World Cup: what comes next? Sports are still driving much of the...
3 Aug 2026 5 minute read 0 comments Edwin Munyui $0.05
Prediction markets defended the correct FOMC outcome, generated more quarterly revenue for Robinhood than equities or crypto, and moved deeper into corporate hedging. The signal is working. The next test is whether the category can create durable fin...
18 Jul 2026 3 minute read 0 comments Edwin Munyui $0.03
Prediction markets have spent much of the World Cup breaking trading-volume records. This week offered the first indication of what happens when the tournament begins to wind down. Polymarket’s World Cup Winner market generated $165.6 million in seve...
10 Jul 2026 4 minute read 0 comments Edwin Munyui $0.01
Prediction markets have spent much of the World Cup proving that they can attract retail trading volume. This week offered a more consequential development: can the same markets become a tool for hedging financial risk at the institutional level? Su...
