Get the Full Free Version of The Art of the Bubble Newsletter here.

The Macro Situation

ultracrepidarian (noun)

• a person who offers an opinion on something that is beyond their knowledge;

• what one becomes subsequent to contrary economic data.

― New Entry in the Updated Devil’s Dictionary

A slight jolt to the economy occurred this week when both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose last month.

• The CPI increased 0.2%, raising the 12-month inflation rate to 2.6%.

• The core CPI (excluding food and energy) increased 0.3%, raising the 12-month inflation rate to 3.3%.

• The cost of shelter, which is about one-third of the CPI, increased 0.4%, raising the 12-month total to 4.9%.

• The PPI increased 0.2%, raising the 12-month inflation rate to 2.4%.

• The core PPI (excluding food and energy) increased 0.3%, raising the 12-month inflation rate to 3.1%.

Other notable news:

• The volatile jobless claims category defied expectations, declining by 3,000 (217,000 total).

• Retail sales rose 0.4% last month, with increased spending in automobiles (1.6%), electronics (2.3%), and restaurant services (0.7%).

While pundits are still expecting a rate cut in December, Powell himself recently remarked that “[t]he economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates.”

At the time of writing, the Fed Watch tool, which tracks the prices of various futures contracts related to interest rates (particularly the federal funds rate), estimates the chances of a rate cut in December are 61.9% for 25bps and 38.1% for no cut.

The Chicago Fed made an adjustment to the ANFCI. The new reading places conditions at a -.57, which is flat with the (newly adjusted) -.56 of last week. This level indicates that financial conditions are still loose.

Core Assets Update

Gold (2567.40) was down against a strong US dollar (106.67). Optimism about the economy remains strong.

• Watch: GLD, GDX, NEM

Crude Oil (66.95) was down due to weak demand in China and strong supply. The strong US dollar has also weakened demand.

• Watch: USO, VAL, XOM, RIG

The 10-year Treasury yield (4.445%) rose on the news that the Fed would be cautious in its approach to future rate cuts.

• Watch: TLT, EDV, IEF

― Todd Mei, PhD and Sebastian Purcell, PhD

AI Sentiment Report

The following sentiment scores use AI to track sectors as leading indicators. (Lesson 4 of The Art of The Bubble covers the selection of lead indicators for bubble trades). The scores are most indicative for the next day of trading (a Monday), but they appear to set the general tone for the next week.

― The Research Team:

Dom Viera, Samantha Russell, Nicole Zinuhova, Michelle Milan

Free Stuff!

1. Kaze NFT whitelist:

A Post-Election launch is now in the works.

2. Rebates:

•  TradingView Rebate (Save $30)

•  Trojan Bot (Save 10% per trade)

•  Prodigy Bot (Save 10% per trade)

All proceeds go back to funding the community pool.

Note: we’re migrating our newsletter host, so formatting is changing a bit.

Happy Trading!!

Join us on Discord

Think About Paid

Our paid plans make use of the same base algorithm that our hedge fund, 1.2 Capital Management does, but modified in timeframe so you don’t have to stare at your screen all day. We have BOTH stock and crypto strategies.

Discover our plans and upgrade !

DISCLAIMERS

This newsletter is provided for educational and entertainment purposes only. Robin Technologies and Analytics LLC is the firm that distributes The Art of The Bubble products. The firm does not provide individually tailored investment advice and does not take a subscriber’s or anyone’s personal circumstances into consideration when discussing investments; nor is Robin Technologies and Analytics LLC registered as an investment adviser or broker-dealer in any jurisdiction.

You should expect no financial returns one way or another based on the statements contained herein. These points hold equally for any statements that could be attributed to The Art of The Bubble, 1.2 Labs, or any related business entities or personnel operating in association with Robin Technologies and Analytics LLC. If you decide to buy or invest in anything, then your returns and potential losses are your own. No statements about taxation are taxable advice and you are encouraged to consult your own tax professional. No statements about laws are legal advice and you are encouraged to consult your own professional legal counsel. You are finally also encouraged to do your own due diligence before investing in anything consulting with appropriate professionals as needed.

Benchmarks and Data Sources

All data not otherwise specified (or obvious from context) is taken from TradingView.com.

The cryptocurrency benchmark used is an equally weighted mix of BTC and ETH. While the benchmark for stocks used is the Nasdaq 100.

Conflicts of Interest

All contributors to this newsletter should be considered active investors. Because the strategies pursued are often quick, contributors may or may not own the stocks or coins discussed by the time of reading. However, readers should assume that any coins, stocks, or other items discussed are owned by the contributors for conflict of interest purposes.

Company policy prevents accepting any funds for the discussion of specific coins or stocks.

By opening and reading this newsletter you agree to further the terms and conditions set forth for 1.2 Labs educational services and data services. Read those terms and conditions here.