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The Macro Situation

confidence (noun)

• belief “in” something as opposed to belief “that” something;

• a long con or trick;

• belief in a 50bps interest rate cut.

                                             ― New Entry in the Updated Devil’s Dictionary

While consumer confidence is the lowest in 3 years due to job worries (down from 103.3 to 98.7), the economy remains somewhat strong:

• According to the core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) index, inflation over the last 12 months dropped from 2.5% to 2.2%, the lowest level since early 2021.

• Jobless claims came in lower last week (218,000) than the previous (222,000), which suggests businesses are in a sort of equilibrium mode – not-hiring and not-firing.

• GDP grew 3% last quarter, which indicates health and resilience.

• Durable goods sales remained flat against pessimistic forecasts by experts.

At the time of writing, the Fed Watch tool, which tracks the prices of various futures contracts related to interest rates (particularly the federal funds rate), estimates the chances of a rate cut in November are 45.2% for 25bps and 54.8% for 50bps.

The Chicago Fed made an adjustment to the ANFCI. The new reading places conditions at a -.54, which is a decrease from the (newly adjusted) -.53 of last week. This level indicates that financial conditions are still loose.

Core Assets Update

Gold (2680.80) has been bolstered by its historic high prices while the US dollar (100.42) gained during the week but fell on the core inflation data.

• Watch: GLD, GDX, NEM

Crude Oil (68.64) prices have fallen due to a Financial Times report that “Saudi Arabia, the world's top crude exporter, will give up its $100 price target in preparation for raising output, along with OPEC members and allies in December.”

• Watch: USO, VAL, XOM, RIG

The 10-year Treasury yield (3.751%) has dipped in reaction to the tame inflation data.

• Watch: TLT, EDV, IEF

                                             -Todd Mei, PhD and Sebastian Purcell, Phd

AI Sentiment Report

The following sentiment scores use AI to track sectors as leading indicators. (Lesson 4 of The Art of The Bubble covers the selection of lead indicators for bubble trades). The scores are most indicative for the next day of trading (a Monday), but they appear to set the general tone for the next week.

-The Research Team:

                     Dom Viera, Samantha Russell, Nicole Zinuhova, Michelle Milan

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Think About Paid

Our paid plans make use of the same base algorithm that our hedge fund, 1.2 Capital Management does, but modified in timeframe so you don’t have to stare at your screen all day. We have BOTH stock and crypto strategies.

Below is a recent comparison of our top trading strategies relative to BTC and ETH since the beginning of the current market cycle.

That's it for today ! 

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DISCLAIMERS

This newsletter is provided for educational and entertainment purposes only. Robin Technologies and Analytics LLC is the firm that distributes The Art of The Bubble products. The firm does not provide individually tailored investment advice and does not take a subscriber’s or anyone’s personal circumstances into consideration when discussing investments; nor is Robin Technologies and Analytics LLC registered as an investment adviser or broker-dealer in any jurisdiction.

You should expect no financial returns one way or another based on the statements contained herein. These points hold equally for any statements that could be attributed to The Art of The Bubble, 1.2 Labs, or any related business entities or personnel operating in association with Robin Technologies and Analytics LLC. If you decide to buy or invest in anything, then your returns and potential losses are your own. No statements about taxation are taxable advice and you are encouraged to consult your own tax professional. No statements about laws are legal advice and you are encouraged to consult your own professional legal counsel. You are finally also encouraged to do your own due diligence before investing in anything consulting with appropriate professionals as needed.

Benchmarks and Data Sources

All data not otherwise specified (or obvious from context) is taken from TradingView.com.

The cryptocurrency benchmark used is an equally weighted mix of BTC and ETH. While the benchmark for stocks used is the Nasdaq 100.

Conflicts of Interest

All contributors to this newsletter should be considered active investors. Because the strategies pursued are often quick, contributors may or may not own the stocks or coins discussed by the time of reading. However, readers should assume that any coins, stocks, or other items discussed are owned by the contributors for conflict of interest purposes.

Company policy prevents accepting any funds for the discussion of specific coins or stocks.

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