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The Macro Situation

labor (noun)

• the source of production in an economy;

• a cost of production;

• the measure of economic health (as it goes, so goes the economy).

                                             ― New Entry in the Updated Devil’s Dictionary

The job market is slowing as the Fed has intended:

• Job openings hit their lowest levels in 3.5 years, or what was 7.7 million in July compared to 7.9 million (revised down) in June.

• Jobless claims fell slightly last week to 227,000, which is an 8-week low and suggests companies are hesitating to lay off workers.

• Fewer jobs were added in July (142,000 vs. the 165,000 expected)

• The unemployment rate dropped from 4.3% in June to 4.2% in July.

At the time of writing, the Fed Watch tool, which tracks the prices of various futures contracts related to interest rates (particularly the federal funds rate), estimates the chances of a rate cut in September are 69.0% for 25bps and 31.0% for 50bps–virtually unchanged for 2 weeks now.

The Chicago Fed again made an adjustment to the ANFCI. The new reading places conditions at a -.46, which is a decline from the (newly adjusted) -.45 of last week. This level indicates that financial conditions are still loose.

Core Assets Update

Gold (2526.80) suffered a slight drop due to the unexpectedly low numbers of jobs being added last month. Meanwhile, the US dollar (101.19) was relatively steady compared to last week.

• Watch: GLD, GDX, NEM

Crude Oil (68.16) dropped below the $70 mark to its lowest price since June 2023 due to uncertainty about OPEC+’s failure to assure a supply balance, especially in view of slow demand in China.

• Watch: USO, VAL, XOM, RIG

The 10-year Treasury yield (3.716%) declined on Friday following the release of August’s nonfarm payrolls report, which indicated a softening labor market and concerns about a potential economic slowdown.

• Watch: TLT, EDV, IEF

                                             -Todd Mei, PhD and Sebastian Purcell, Phd

 

AI Sentiment Report

The following sentiment scores use AI to track sectors as leading indicators. (Lesson 4 of The Art of The Bubble covers the selection of lead indicators for bubble trades). The scores are most indicative for the next day of trading (a Monday), but they appear to set the general tone for the next week.

 

-The Research Team:

                     Dom Viera, Samantha Russell, Nicole Zinuhova, Michelle Milan

 

 

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Below is a recent comparison of our top trading strategies relative to BTC and ETH since the beginning of the current market cycle.

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-The 1.2 Labs Team

 

DISCLAIMERS

This newsletter is provided for educational and entertainment purposes only. Robin Technologies and Analytics LLC is the firm that distributes The Art of The Bubble products. The firm does not provide individually tailored investment advice and does not take a subscriber’s or anyone’s personal circumstances into consideration when discussing investments; nor is Robin Technologies and Analytics LLC registered as an investment adviser or broker-dealer in any jurisdiction.

You should expect no financial returns one way or another based on the statements contained herein. These points hold equally for any statements that could be attributed to The Art of The Bubble, 1.2 Labs, or any related business entities or personnel operating in association with Robin Technologies and Analytics LLC. If you decide to buy or invest in anything, then your returns and potential losses are your own. No statements about taxation are taxable advice and you are encouraged to consult your own tax professional. No statements about laws are legal advice and you are encouraged to consult your own professional legal counsel. You are finally also encouraged to do your own due diligence before investing in anything consulting with appropriate professionals as needed.

Benchmarks and Data Sources

All data not otherwise specified (or obvious from context) is taken from TradingView.com.

The cryptocurrency benchmark used is an equally weighted mix of BTC and ETH. While the benchmark for stocks used is the Nasdaq 100.

Conflicts of Interest

All contributors to this newsletter should be considered active investors. Because the strategies pursued are often quick, contributors may or may not own the stocks or coins discussed by the time of reading. However, readers should assume that any coins, stocks, or other items discussed are owned by the contributors for conflict of interest purposes.

Company policy prevents accepting any funds for the discussion of specific coins or stocks.

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