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The Macro Situation

Rebound (noun)

• a bounce back;

• that semi-romantic interest used to get back on your feet just after a breakup;

• the positive and negative sentiment that reverberates within the economy as reality sinks in.

                                             ― New Entry in the Updated Devil’s Dictionary

While inflation appears to be falling in line, a starker reality is that the job market is slowing.

• The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, which excludes the cost of food and energy, increased 0.2 % in July while year-on-year the increase was 2.6%. Good news on both fronts.

• However, while jobless claims fell last week by 2000 (for a total of 231,000), re-employment opportunities are becoming more scarce.

• According to a survey done by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, unemployment worries are at their highest in over a decade, with the average expectation of being unemployed at 4.4% in July (compared to 3.9%) one year ago.

At the time of writing, the Fed Watch tool, which tracks the prices of various futures contracts related to interest rates (particularly the federal funds rate), estimates the chances of a rate cut in September are 67.0% for 25bps and 33.0% for 50bps.

Up to the week ending on August 23, 2024, the ANFCI decreased to -0.52 from -0.48 the previous week. This indicates a good financial climate for investment.

Core Assets Update

Gold (2536.00) dropped at the end of the week due to inflation data matching expectations and the US dollar (101.73) gaining ground.

Crude Oil (73.65) has suffered due to weak demand from China and a worry about increasing inventories.

The 10-year Treasury yield (3.909%) rose after inflation data matched expectations.

                                             -Todd Mei, PhD and Sebastian Purcell, Phd

 

AI Sentiment Report

The following sentiment scores use AI to track sectors as leading indicators. (Lesson 4 of The Art of The Bubble covers the selection of lead indicators for bubble trades). The scores are most indicative for the next day of trading (a Monday), but they appear to set the general tone for the next week.

 

-The Research Team:

                     Dom Viera, Samantha Russell, Nicole Zinuhova, Michelle Milan

 

 

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Below is a recent comparison of our top trading strategies relative to BTC and ETH since the beginning of the current market cycle.

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DISCLAIMERS

This newsletter is provided for educational and entertainment purposes only. Robin Technologies and Analytics LLC is the firm that distributes The Art of The Bubble products. The firm does not provide individually tailored investment advice and does not take a subscriber’s or anyone’s personal circumstances into consideration when discussing investments; nor is Robin Technologies and Analytics LLC registered as an investment adviser or broker-dealer in any jurisdiction.

You should expect no financial returns one way or another based on the statements contained herein. These points hold equally for any statements that could be attributed to The Art of The Bubble, 1.2 Labs, or any related business entities or personnel operating in association with Robin Technologies and Analytics LLC. If you decide to buy or invest in anything, then your returns and potential losses are your own. No statements about taxation are taxable advice and you are encouraged to consult your own tax professional. No statements about laws are legal advice and you are encouraged to consult your own professional legal counsel. You are finally also encouraged to do your own due diligence before investing in anything consulting with appropriate professionals as needed.

Benchmarks and Data Sources

All data not otherwise specified (or obvious from context) is taken from TradingView.com.

The cryptocurrency benchmark used is an equally weighted mix of BTC and ETH. While the benchmark for stocks used is the Nasdaq 100.

Conflicts of Interest

All contributors to this newsletter should be considered active investors. Because the strategies pursued are often quick, contributors may or may not own the stocks or coins discussed by the time of reading. However, readers should assume that any coins, stocks, or other items discussed are owned by the contributors for conflict of interest purposes.

Company policy prevents accepting any funds for the discussion of specific coins or stocks.

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