State of the Market (04/28/24)

By Todd Mei PhD | State of the Market | 28 Apr 2024


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The Macro Situation

 

deux coups (noun):

two strikes, as in to strike twice with one stone;

  • double whammy;the transition period of the economy when consumers and investors get hit from both sides.

― New Entry in the Updated Devil’s Dictionary

Perhaps we will remember Q1 of 2024 as the beginning of the “soft landing”?

Whammy 1

The Q1 advance estimate for GDP was below what Bloomberg economists had predicted. The economy grew at an annualized pace of 1.6% and not 2.5%.

It was only a short while ago – i.e. Q4 of 2023 – that we were looking at 3.4% growth.

Whammy 2

The Personal Consumption Expenditures index (minus food and energy) rose to 3.7% in Q1, above estimates of 3.4%.

In Q4, core PCE was 2%.

Markets clung to some positive news in the tech sphere. Alphabet and Microsoft were bright spots for investors. Meta was a different story as investors didn’t react well to the Big Z’s announcement it was spending more money on AI development.

High rates for longer seem a sure thing. The question is how many rate cuts can there possibly be in 2024?

Looking ahead, 44.4% of market participants think the first rate cut will happen in September.

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Up to April 19, 2024, the ANFCI indicates a friendly environment as it remained in range week over week, moving from -0.55 the previous week to -0.52. Recall, this data is lagged by two weeks, but it is also slow-moving data.

Core Assets Update

Gold (2349.60) has slumped a bit. High rates for longer will eat into gold’s momentum while the US dollar (106.1) remains strong. The Chinese appetite for gold will at some point be exhausted, one imagines.

Crude Oil (83.66) remains down compared to most of April as tension in the Middle East has cooled. Notably, even deep water drillers, such as RIG, should be profitable in this price range so that the entire spectrum of oil stocks is “fine.”

The 10-year Treasury yield (4.663%) is down slightly following the PCE report. However, historically the 10-year yield tends to rise following disappointing GDP news.

- Todd Mei, PhD & Sebastian Purcell, PhD

 

AI Sentiment Report

 

The following sentiment scores use AI to track sectors as leading indicators. 

(Lesson 4 of The Art of The Bubble covers the selection of lead indicators for bubble trades). 

The scores are most indicative for the next day of trading (a Monday), but they appear to set the general tone for the next week.

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The methodology employed is based on this peer reviewed academic article, which produced 550%+ results in back tests over a 2 year time frame. We consider 4 and 5 scores to be positive, but please bear in mind that the AI model is still in its validation phase.

-The Research Team: Dom Viera, Samantha Russell, Nicole Zinuhova, Michelle Milan

 

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DISCLAIMERS

This newsletter is provided for educational and entertainment purposes only. Robin Technologies and Analytics LLC is the firm that distributes The Art of The Bubble products. The firm does not provide individually tailored investment advice and does not take a subscriber’s or anyone’s personal circumstances into consideration when discussing investments; nor is Robin Technologies and Analytics LLC registered as an investment adviser or broker-dealer in any jurisdiction.

You should expect no financial returns one way or another based on the statements contained herein. These points hold equally for any statements that could be attributed to The Art of The Bubble, 1.2 Labs, or any related business entities or personnel operating in association with Robin Technologies and Analytics LLC. If you decide to buy or invest in anything, then your returns and potential losses are your own. No statements about taxation are taxable advice and you are encouraged to consult your own tax professional. No statements about laws are legal advice and you are encouraged to consult your own professional legal counsel. You are finally also encouraged to do your own due diligence before investing in anything consulting with appropriate professionals as needed.

Benchmarks and Data Sources

All data not otherwise specified (or obvious from context) is taken from TradingView.com.

The cryptocurrency benchmark used is an equally weighted mix of BTC and ETH. While the benchmark for stocks used is the Nasdaq 100.

Conflicts of Interest

All contributors to this newsletter should be considered active investors. Because the strategies pursued are often quick, contributors may or may not own the stocks or coins discussed by the time of reading. However, readers should assume that any coins, stocks, or other items discussed are owned by the contributors for conflict of interest purposes.

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Todd Mei PhD
Todd Mei PhD

Todd is a former Associate Professor of Philosophy with over 16 years of research experience in the philosophy of work and economics. He is currently the lead researcher and writer for the Web3 consultancy group, 1.2 Labs.


State of the Market
State of the Market

Weekly reports on the state of the macroeconomy, stocks, and crypto compiled by the 1.2 Labs Research team.

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