Crypto prefers dramatic events, though sometimes someone does a thing that grabs everybody’s attention on the entire timeline. This is pretty much what took place when Keyboard Monkey with Mando decided to resolve a market argument by doing a prediction wager for $200,000. Both of them put in $100K each, then they sealed it in Myriad and allowed the market to decide if Bitcoin will first reach $120K or if it will fall below $100K. No handshake involved, and no screenshots that can not be verified. It was just a completely open, trustless prediction match.
Once the wager became available, traders appeared fast. Myriad provides a way for anybody to trade odds that made it become a small market by itself. The line of probability not only moved a little but violently changed course nine times during the twenty-three days. All the shifts in Bitcoin created confidence that went back and forth. There was a time Keyboard Monkey’s chance seemed in trouble while BTC sped close to $115K, leaving probability sinking almost to the 20 percent range. People from X already started putting “L” memes under his posting.
Then the opinion changed. Lots of liquidations, stricter macro situations and an unexpected run away from risk caused Bitcoin to start dropping hard. Over one tough week, BTC fell by above 13 percent, went below $100K and settled right away in Keyboard Monkey’s favor. Myriad handled the $200K payout, making it simple and automatic.
What made people amazed is how big the side of trading became. In the end, the wager produced over $1.15M in volume and more than $11K in fees as everyone wanted to get ahead of odds moves. It stopped being only a disagreement but became an ongoing event.
Keyboard Monkey did a short post for the win: “The good guys won.”
In a way, it meant that conviction with the timing and great bravery still makes difference in crypto. You know, sometimes it is all about guts and belief in something maybe unproven yet.
May your candles be forever green. See ya tomorrow
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