Happy weekend traders, we have had a good time with the crypto market this week, showing bullish strength with Bitcoin almost touching $83,000. Most altcoins are also affected positively, as Ethereum touched the $2,600 price level, and assets like LTC, SOL, and others did well too.
But the big question is: is this the beginning of a bull run?
There is a serious sense of desperation and uncertainty in the market now, as traders are curious to know if this is an actual bull run or just a short-term push-up as a result of geopolitical and economic factors (such as shifting macroeconomic policies, central bank interest rate expectations, and global trade tensions that frequently trigger safe-haven flows and speculative positioning in digital assets).
Well, I cannot be completely certain if we are going to have a full bull run coming or if this is already the beginning. But let's consider some technicals and market price actions so we can determine a strong probability.
Bitcoin, the crypto market king, usually leads the bull market. Looking at BTC now on a daily timeframe, the market has formed what looks like a textbook inverted head and shoulders pattern, of which the right shoulder is not completely formed.
As of the time of writing, Bitcoin had pulled back from its local peak at $83,000, and the volume price indicator showed 4.58k versus 14.01k (average). This indicates that the trading volume is well below the 20-day moving average, and the recent price pullback is happening on light volume, which typically indicates low selling pressure.
It reflects a lack of strong conviction from sellers rather than an aggressive reversal.
The 20 EMA is just below the $78,455 line, which indicates strong support and a key level. As long as the price stays above this level, the sentiment remains bullish. The 9 MA confirms this at the $78,200 price level, which shows a proper bullish alignment.
Following the analysis above, there is strong resistance at the $83,000 price level that needs to be taken out. If the market takes out this level, Bitcoin will test the $95,000 price territory again, where we will meet another resistance level.
My thoughts: As a conservative trader, I love following the trend and not trading against it. Rather than trying to time the market, I take profits from time to time while still following the current trends. Following this analysis, the indicators show a bullish alignment, and the recent market pullback was a short-term correction caused by sellers during low-volume trading. Therefore, there is a higher probability for Bitcoin to break the $83,000 price level and head toward $90,000 during the next bullish leg.
