I am very much a Bitcoin bull and to be honest, I really do not understand how anyone can realistically be anything but bullish. However, I do have concerns regarding the short to medium-term and funnily enough they are outside forces. Recently we have seen well known traditional Wall Street players such as Paul Tudor Jones and more recently, Bill Miller, moving into the space.
Miller has however been in Bitcoin for a number of years, acquiring his first Bitcoin back in the days when BTC was trading at a couple hundred dollars. The former Legg Mason CIO has recently increased his BTC position to approximately 50%, which is a big move, especially for a traditional finance player.
This is all very good and needed for adoption and market cap growth but it is definitely a two edged sword that can create havoc at the worst of times. Much of the drop in March can be attributed to Wall Street playing both sides of the market. When traditional markets began crashing in March they began to scramble to find liquidity and Bitcoin had to be sold.
If you remember, there was a delay of a couple of days before BTC began to crash, indicating that it was triggered by Wall Street traders needing cash! The two markets did not drop simultaneously but rather the one triggered the other. Most Bitcoiners are going to hodl regardless of price. According to Glassnode 60% of BTC has not been moved in over a year. So, if this is the case we have a really big concern going forward.
The Second Market Collapse
I am of the view, as are a number of others, that traditional markets are going to tank yet again. A market propped up by monopoly money that is miles away from reality has to reach a moment of reality at some point! Currently there are stocks in America that are trading at all time highs while they simultaneously file for bankruptcy.
With more and more outside interest in Crypto we start to become more and more susceptible to a repeat of the March event. Recently Willy Woo released a new model whereby he is predicting the next bull cycle is likely to commence within a month!
I had been looking at a similar timeframe myself and believe that technically it is pretty accurate. However, Woo also stated that Corona had delayed the cycle and that if it had not occurred, we would already be well on our way into the next bull cycle.
This cements my concerns going forward. If Bitcoin cannot find a significant decoupling from the traditional markets soon we may find ourselves in a repeat situation and perhaps just as we are about to take off! Here's hoping that the dips will be bought up in the event that this takes place again. The 3.7K dip was lapped up pretty quickly and now that investors have seen the strong rebound that occurred back to 10K they may be more bullish even in such an enviroment.
Best exchanges to purchase Bitcoin
Best places to attain FREE Bitcoin