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Bitcoin Analysis For Short And Long Term After Halving

By Rubikkav | Rubikkav Insights | 21 Apr 2024


When this substantial article was written, Bitcoin was going through a moment of important decision regarding its price and volume. Before the Bitcoin halving, notable events occurred that must be evaluated: from the weekly correction to the rise of the asset's dominance in relation to total market capitalization.

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However, it is relevant to evaluate possible short- and long-term scenarios so that in the coming months we are clear about the correct direction of the cryptocurrency market, and especially, what could happen with Bitcoin. Exactly that is the objective of this article.

Dominance Rising Price Falling

Before looking at the relationship of Bitcoin's short-term and long-term times, we must consider the behavior of Bitcoin's dominance in relation to its total market capitalization.

For the last few months it has had a considerable rise, going from approximately 51% to a new annual maximum with a value of 57%. This fact has executed a behavior that can bring short-term investment opportunities. Behavior that we see that when Bitcoin dominance rises, most cryptocurrencies tend to correct prices or investors, in other words, execute sales or make the maximum possible profit.

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With the rise of dominance, there is added the fact that there is some suspicion regarding the renewal of the all time high (ATH). Basically, Bitcoin sought weekly liquidity and, followed by red candles, produced a price correction that caused the sentiment of short-term investors to enter into a belief of a possible end to the long-awaited "bull run."

Miners Did Not Execute Massive Sales

A curious fact during the days close to the Bitcoin halving is that the majority of miners maintained their positions and did not execute a massive sale as expected.

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Since the price correction began to take hold, only approximately five billion dollars have come out of the miners' total capitalization. Considerable average margin as healthy.

Short And Long Term

In general and after the halving, the sentiment of short and long-term investors is within a zone of waiting and anxiety, which we well know can be called an accumulation zone. Therefore, we could be experiencing an average price variation between $77k and $56k.

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The average realized price for short-term holders is currently between $59.1k and 71.6k, an MVRV pointing towards a middle zone of correction and accumulation that can be easily predicted.

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In the case of long-term holders, the average realized price is between a range of $18k and 71k so far, and with an MVRV of 3 points with sentimental parameters pointing towards a price correction or simply a new accumulation.

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In any case, we see positive signs for this new market cycle compared to the previous one. Among these signals is the fact that even if the next black swan phenomenon occurs, it is observed that the market already has the capacity to recover quickly. This means the emblematic maturity of short- and long-term investors.


Last article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. Remember that all information presented here is a combination of third party data added to our personal opinion.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Rubikkav.

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