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Origin Materials - Week in Review (Saturday Night Recap Edition for 1/28/23)

Bioindustrial Innovation Canada Highlights Origin Partner Company

A very interesting piece here from Ford on its Ford Smoothie, which highlights several of the plant-based ingredients used in certain components of its vehicles. There is no mention of Origin Materials in said smoothie, but for good reason. For one, wood residue wouldn't be a very tasty ingredient. For two, the sustainable PET planned for production is non-disruptive to the food chain. That is, there are no edible products removed from the food supply chain that would be better served as food, such as the coconut, soy, rice, orange, or agave shown on Ford's website used in Origin's process. 


Headcount Continues to Rise

Per LinkedIn, the unofficial employee headcount at Origin Materials is at 184. The company may well be over the 200 mark, as not every employee maintains a LinkedIn profile. The company is now on the border of becoming a large-sized business.


Charting the Stock

On the monthly chart, the view is quite bullish. This is largely due to a swift and strong recovery from the end-of-year sell-off.


On the six month chart, the stock is now at a critical level. On Friday, it closed above the 200-day moving average. However, it still sits below a $6 level which has been resistance going back to September 2022. ORGN has not traded at $6 a share or above since September 15, 2022. It would be very bullish to see a continuation above that level.


O1 Mechanical Completion Announced

Investors clamouring for an update finally got what they were hoping for: an update on the company's first manufacturing plant. Yesterday morning, it was announced that the plant was indeed "mechanically complete," in line with the previously updated timeline. Commissioning of the O1 facility in Sarnia has already been underway and is expected to be done by the end of Q1 2023.


The above slide deck was released with Q3 earnings, back in November, before the delay was announced. Below is the construction timeline for O2:


Of Origin Materials, Jim Cramer Says "I like it."

In the Lightning Round of the Mad Money television program on CNBC on January 27th, a hyped-up caller asked Cramer about Origin Materials and shouted out Sarnia and John Birmingham's beard. Perhaps not realizing that their first production plant is indeed located in Sarnia, Cramer mistakenly tried to correct the caller by saying they're based in West Sacramento. Regardless, he went on to say, "We’ve got to do some work on it, but I like it. I like it. I like what they’re up to."

What's Next for Origin Materials?

While the next date to watch, in so far as seeing management stick to their deadlines, we should expect to see start-up of the Origin 1 facility announced by March 31, 2023 -- if not sooner. Any slight delay would not be surprising, given the scale-up of operations, but not too discouraging either. The management team has guided $60M in revenue for 2023, which really only includes two full quarters of production. Should start-up and initial production occur sometime in Q2, there could be a potential that they may slightly beat that yearly revenue estimate. But they have likely stuck with the conservatively low estimate, just to be on the safe side. The $120M revenue estimate for 2024 assumes a full year of production, at $30M per quarter.

Co-CEO John Bissell is on the slate for the Innovation Agora Speakers program at CERAWeek, March 6-10, 2023.

Also be on the look out for an update on the bonds for Origin 2.

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dot com boomer - writing mostly on crypto, stocks, entertainment, etc.

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