Thoughts on the market
It is red. It is bad. It is terrible.
I am losing more money than I make daily working. At least on paper, because unrealized losses are not really losses.
Growing up in a family that never owned shares, bonds or had any other kind of investment, hearing about losses or gains on television was something like science fiction to me.
Then it all changed...
More than 3 years ago, when I started investing, my world changed. Now I understand what it means to have a good portfolio.
Now I understand what it means to lose 3% in my stock’s portfolio value in one day and I understand how it feels when your crypto portfolio drops 20% in one day.
I have experienced more than 1000$ gain in a day, to more than 3000$ loss.
I have been slept deprived, because I used too much leverage and I have slept like a baby because I had nothing more to lose.
Now I’m here. Losing 5–10% of my value every day. The same situation would hurt so much in the past, but now I do not care.
Every single dollar I make, that I am okay with losing, I invest.
I know now that the best time to invest is when no one is investing.
If you look at the charts, you will see just that. Only people like me are buying.
But is it so really?
No. It is not just “people like me,” but also the professionals. By that I mean people who know when to invest, people that we call the “smart money.”
They know that the tide will change, and they know they will sell to retail at higher prices.
Long-term holders are on the rise. Fewer people are willing to sell, and it is just a matter of time before the price will rally. Once it reaches a certain point, the long-term holders will sell to short-term holders (aka weak hands). The price will reach its peak again. The cycle will repeat.
Right now, we are in a time where the number of short-term retail investors is at its lowest level. That is very much visible in the price.
There is one problem. This might not be the bottom, because the majority of people have bought Bitcoin between 40 and 50k dollars. Every day we spend below 40k dollars brings in a higher risk that they will sell, and we will drop lower. Therefore, don’t buy everything right now, but keep buying slowly. Practice so-called dollar-cost averaging.
The whole point is …
There is a group of people who continue to buy and hold and stake. You need to be one of those people.
Remember: If the price is already up, you are too late for the game. Buy when it is low, sell when it is high. A phrase we hear so often and yet we do not follow.
I will see you all on the green side. If it takes a month, a year or two, it doesn’t matter.