7 March 2022: The world has shifted swiftly from one global crisis (two year pandemic) to another - the now raging Russia - Ukraine war in Europe. Confirming multiple intelligence reports, Putin moved his forces into Ukraine on 24 February 2022. Since then, the Ukrainians have fought back valiantly against the Russian invasion.
Timeline of the Conflict:
- February 24th - Russia invades Ukraine
- February 25th - Ukraine falls under country-wide siege
- March 2nd - One million Ukrainian refugees surpassed, city of Kherson captured by Russians
- March 7th - Russia & Ukraine hold third round of peace talks
This event has already had a substantial impact on the global economy and remains at the top of global affairs. When a major nuclear power goes to war - and publicly threatens the use of such weapons - the world tends to pay attention. Since the onset of the war, the United States & its allies have gone to great length to place catastrophic economic sanctions on Russia.
Russian Economy Collapses
The Russian economy has essentially gone to zero since sanctions began. The currency of Russia , called the Ruble, has completely collapsed in value with the onslaught of sanctions from every corner of the globe. Nearly every entity, from businesses to countries, have severed ties with Russia altogether.
Major Russian banks have been cut off from SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication), a vital information relay that allows banks to share financial transaction information between one another. Many western-based companies have discontinued services in Russia. This includes platforms like Twitch and major credit card companies like Mastercard.
The United States & Europe are even mulling over options that would allow them to completely cut off Russian oil, one of the lifelines of the Russian economy. This has actually led to Russia and China improving relations and working together far more closely. For instance, without major credit card providers offering services to Russians, the country decided to move and utilize Chinese transaction services instead.
Addressing Fears
There has been heightened anxiety and speculation over the potentialities of the Russia - Ukraine war. Many of these fears are at least in part related to the potential for the war to escalate to a global conflict between Russia and NATO. It should be noted that Putin has purposefully put his nuclear arms on high alert and issued warnings of unprecedented retaliation should any NATO countries take action against Russia.
When a global nuclear power is engaged in war, the threat of nuclear war is always substantially higher. That said, it is impossible to truly predict or add probability to the possibility of such an event happening. The argument of whether or not "Putin is crazy" is purely speculation. The launch of even a single nuclear weapon could mean imminent death for everyone.
A fear that is more concrete as a possibility is devastating cyber attacks. Russia has already demonstrated previously that it could successfully conduct cyber attacks against countries like the United States. Even more interesting, Russia successfully conducted tests in which it removed itself from the global internet back in June/July.
Now, fears of Russia disconnecting again have arisen, a possible signal of coming cyber attacks. An unverified tweet has been circulating suggesting such a possibility occurring on March 11th and that businesses had the next five days to comply.
Despite fears of such possibilities, a direct conflict with NATO appears unlikely for now. Russia has to take Ukraine first for any of this to matter further. Should Russia take Ukraine, then a fresh stalemate would take the reins between occuppied Ukraine & the rest of NATO. The calls for an armed Germany are interesting and worth monitoring. This would essentially make Germany the first line of defense for core Europe if Russia advanced past Ukraine.
Again though, it depends on the outcome of the fighting between Russia and Ukraine. Much of the information, statistics, figures, etc. coming out of Ukraine has simply been inaccurate through the media at this time, so judging the state of the conflict is - for now - more challenging.
Wrap Up
Any one of dozens of explanations can be chosen for the motivations behind the beginnings of the Russia - Ukraine war. There is an ample amount of speculation, bad intel, and propaganda from both sides of the conflict to quickly deteriorate any actual meaning. The important part that cannot be understated is the impacts to both populations regarding Russia & Ukraine.
People in both countries were publically against this conflict and both are having their lives destroyed over it. The entirety of Ukraine is now a warzone, especially with the continual bombing of urban centers. The people of Russia are now suffering through an absolutely brutal economic collapse brought on by the rest of the world.
There are no winners here.
Although Russia made moves to leverage the cryptospace to limit the impacts of sanctions, it is pretty clear that its simply not mature enough yet to serve as a legitimate neutral option in circumstances such as this. Still, it has been documented that many individuals impacted by the crisis have been seeking safety within the cryptoeconomy.
Key Takeaway
Both the fiat & crypto markets have experienced profound volatility since the onset of the conflict. This will be something covered in detail at the end of the week. It has also been announced that the Biden Administration here in the US is gearing up this week to sign new cryptocurrency regulations in response to Russians trying to use it to escape sanctions.
Above all, we at RekTimes sincerely hope all impacted by this new conflict are able to remain safe and in good spirits.
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