The Crypto Bear is Around the Corner | RekTimes Weekly Markets 1.20

By Zacharias | RekTimes Archive | 31 Dec 2021


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31 December 2021: Happy New Year's from RekTimes! With the cryptocurrency market breaking down yet again over the past week and 2022 quite literally around the corner, it is time to put together long term plans for the upcoming new year. Last week, we provided some optimistic insight into a potentially fair Q1 2022 that could see prices rise from current levels.

Something important to note however is the largely sideways movement of Bitcoin over the past year - something that is not ideal for what is suppose to be a bull market uptrend. We will analyze cryptocurrencies as we get ready for 2022 and offer a side dish of speculation to have fun with as an end of the year treat. 

The main news stories of the week are available below:


Crypto-Economy

 

  • Cardano ambitiously announces plans to launch DeFi in Africa in 2022 (Investing)

  • North Korea hacks $1.7 billion in crypto, calls it "long term investment" (FXEmpire)

  • US Senator Warren argues for "real solutions" for financial inequality, Bitcoin too concentrated (Bitcoin News


World Economy

 

  • 2021 in photos: Top photojournalist pieces from the past year (BBC)

  • Ghislaine Maxwell found guilty in Epstein sex trafficking case (New York Times)

  • World surges to one million daily COVID-19 cases (Aljazeera)

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Crypto-Economy & Markets

Fear still remains extremely relevant within the cryptocurrency market. We have seen yet another decline in sentiment as retail continues to stay away from Bitcoin. Speaking of, Bitcoin is around the previous levels it fell to earlier in December but buyers should be weary of these levels if you are a first time entrant.

For those that have been holding or investing in cryptocurrencies for an extended period of time, simply continue to hold through down trends.

Strong Bitcoin advocates continue to push the cryptocurrency as perpetually bullish, but that isn't necessarily the case here. Now, while Bitcoin is bearish, other altcoins are not. We have seen big runs by Terra, Polkadot, Algorand, and even Publish0x's FARM token.  

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Fear & Greed Index


Total Market

The total cryptocurrency market has fallen 3% since last week. Last week's reversal saw the market attempt to break through past moving averages but fail to officially break through. 

The market has remained in a flat pattern that has not decided on an official direction yet - though the trend has indicated downward movement moving forward.

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Bitcoin

Over the past week, Bitcoin has fallen 7%, completely reversing last week's 6% rally off the lows.

Bitcoin is currently sitting just above $47,000 with downside momentum.

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Alt Coins

The altcoin market has recently shown considerably more strength. While Bitcoin has broken down, numerous altcoins have experienced significant rallies. 

Additionally, Ethereum has remained in a definitive uptrend despite breaking down below $4000. The crypto market (minus Bitcoin) has found support and experienced a bounce off that level.

The total market cap, minus Bitcoin, is shown below:

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Total Crypto Market Analysis

With Bitcoin breaking down and altcoins at support, it is entirely possible we see a late "altcoin rally" heading into 2022.  Last week we discussed the possibility of a strong, profitable Q1 2022. This can remain possible with altcoins (to a lesser extent Bitcoin) though it should be noted the grounds for a bear market are obvious and apparent.

The perpetual bull market theory still has no grounds when considering a historical standpoint. Until it happens and provides us that significant data point, expect a bear market soon if not now. Twitter users like CryptoWhale has undoubtedly backed the point that Bitcoin has already been in a bear market. We remain closer to neutral to avoid unneccessary bias and to ensure we are prepared for any scenario that occurrs with the unpredictability of the crypto market. 


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World Economy & Markets

For this section, the main takeaway here is that - despite inflationary pressures and the decline of the world economy - global markets are approaching all time highs if they aren't already there. The SP500 in the United States had surpassed 4800 points, a remarkably development during such a hostile time in human civilization.

The other point to be made here is the nature of US Senator Warren's comments on cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin. Her comments on Bitcoin being more centralized in terms of wealth concentration are actually accurate. This will be the subject of an upcoming article under RekTimes.


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Summary

While last week offered cryptocurrency investors and enthusiasts hope in terms of a reversal and exit out of the bearish trend, this week has proven that within bear markets we will see rallies. Of course, major lower lows have not been reached quite yet in the cryptocurrency market and altcoins appeared primed for a major move against Bitcoin.

Bitcoin should be expected to decline overall over the short to medium term within the crypto market. Altcoins have the catalyst for a major rally, though that depends an increasing amount on the ability of altcoins to attact investors and remain desirable during a major economic downturn/reversal.

Zacharias/RekTimes Speculative View of 2022, 2023

Before offering this view, it is absolutely imperative to note that nothing is guaranteed to occur. In terms of an ideal scenario within the cryptocurrency market, a year long bear market within cryptocurrencies would establish arguably the greatest buying opportunity in crypto to date.

A year long bear market lasting from December 2021 to December/January 2022 would allow interested parties to accumluate more resources and institutional investors to put the appropriate measures in place to preserve the present circumstances of all out conflict. 

So, the ultimate scenario that would be ideal for moderate traders in the space would be the development of a year long bear market over the course of the 2022 year. This would provide interested and involved parties to accumulate top assets for an entire year off the bottoms of the market correction.

Keep an eye on the direction of the markets in the next few days to weeks to determine the best course of action for your portfolio moving forward.

A Thank You from RekTimes

As an author here on Publish0x, I just wanted to express my gratitude to all of you that have been reading, tipping, and supporting RekTimes over the past year. It means the world to me and I am so grateful for your support!

2022 will be a big year for RekTimes and all of crypto. I am looking forward to continuing (and always improving upon) my content here on Publish0x. This wouldn't be possible without all of you readers and supporters out there.

Coming up next week from RekTimes includes:

  • Article on the wealth concentration of Bitcoin (Monday)
  • Article on Sushiswap (Wednesday)
  • RekTimes Weekly Markets 1.21 (Friday)

Best of luck over the next week and happy New Year!


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Zacharias
Zacharias

Founder of RekTmes | Contributor for Admix, GMW3, CryptoEQ


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