Russia Attacks Poland! Aftermath

By rah | rah | 17 Nov 2022

It appears that I upset a few people yesterday, to the point of having my integrity questioned and somebody even suggested I have a second account. Well let me state categorically that I don't and as far as I know the admins on here are pretty good at weeding out those who try to cheat the system.

So now back to the article.

I will openly admit that the title was devised as clickbait - but this is standard practice online and I make no apologies. Headlines are designed to attract the attention of others.

So let's just remind ourselves of what happened. Some kind of missile fell on / hit a farm in a rural part of Poland close to the Ukrainian border. A few thought that I was imbalanced when I suggested four potential scenarios (and I quote from the original article):

  • The Russians deliberately attacked an isolated farm that has no strategic or military value. This is highly unlikely as Russia despite its appalling behaviour has been treading carefully around NATO. If it was deliberate then it might just be designed to test Nato's resolve.
  • They were stray Russian missiles that overshot their target and fell in Poland which was never the intended target. This is a highly realistic scenario and the Slovaks have been right in calling it at the very least "reckless". We must also remember that during the Kosovo War of 1999 Nato accidentally bombed an Albanian village while targeting Serb positions inside Kosovo. These things do happen and if this was the case, while unacceptable, it does not represent an attack on Nato or one of its member countries.
  • The incoming missiles were shot down by Ukrainian anti-missile defences and due to the impact of the explosion they fell into Polish territory. Again this is a potentially realistic scenario and if this is the case Zelenskyy must show continued integrity and categorically state this is what happened. If this is what happened we must be clear that Ukrainian defences were only active because of incoming Russian missiles. Culpability must remain with the Russians.
  • The missiles were Ukrainian launched, but this is almost laughable and can be dismissed immediately. The Ukrainians would immediately be found out and lose that moral high ground that they have maintained throughout. Strategically it makes no sense, why would they be firing west into an area on the borderlands with Poland which has no Russian ground presence. It just doesn't make sense.

Please note even I ruled out the first scenario, namely a DELIBERATE Russian attack and some readers appear to have missed this very point despite my best attempts to be even-handed.

I also pretty much ruled out the fourth scenario so right from the beginning, before the emergence of any evidence, I was almost convinced it was an accident.

During yesterday it emerged that the missile was almost certainly of Ukrainian origin and both the leaders of Poland and NATO ruled out it being a deliberate act by Russia. The Kremlin even praised NATO's "restraint". Between the lines Putin was probably relieved.

Whatever the scenario, and I now feel that the third scenario seems to be most likely - an accident on Ukraine's part - ultimate culpability still remains with Russia as the Ukrainians are only firing missiles because they are under fire themselves.

It hasn't changed opinion about what is happening in Ukraine but now Zelenskyy must tread carefully. He has requested all data and access to the site and is denying that the missile was of Ukrainian origin. He has won the hearts and minds of most of the world and now he must order his next steps accordingly.

This means that if it was a "Ukrainian mistake" he must own it and take responsibility. If he does so, nothing changes and his reputation will remain in tact, but if he takes a stance that opposes the facts his integrity will be called into question about everything he says and has said and people will lose faith in him.

So Zelenskyy, do not deny the evidence and own the mistake, if indeed (as seems to be the case) that is what the evidence is pointing at.

And finally for those who trolled and questioned my integrity I await your response.

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I love reading and technology as well as history. I teach English and Business to professional clients as well as soft skills with a focus on communications. I am a big fan of both Sheffield Wednesday and Lincoln City Football clubs


Experienced Business Owner and Coach and Tutor who now trades in Crypto. It is proving to be an interesting journey with so much technical language involved. Follow me as I learn the trade (and how to trade). Made some howling mistakes to begin with, but still learning and will share what I learn as I learn it for the benefit of the community. - RAH

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