There is no doubt that Britain has been in decline since the end of the Second World War and statistics show that the rot set in even earlier. Recent events have further proven this to be the case and Brexit will continue to be a defining chapter for Britain's future for some time to come. Nigel Farage was a joke a few years ago, but now he is looking like a serious contender to be our next Prime Minister. People are getting desperate and clutching at straws and reaching out to populist far-right politicians who seem to be offering a better deal. I remind my readers that Germany found itself in a similar position in 1920s /1930s and we all know how that turned out.

So to come back to the question in hand I recently came across an article that suggested that the five signs of collapse that usually show up right before disaster are all present in Britain as I write. These signs being, the levels of inequality and sense of unfairness rising towards dangerous levels, complex and ineffective government systems that are incapable of responding to current challenges (in Britain read immigration, our place on the world stage and social welfare), a loss of faith and trust in institutions, unsustainable military spending - and while this is relatively under control thanks to pressure from Trump (this is one of the few things he is right on - Nato members do need to pull their weight and not expect a US bailout) and threats from Putin the Labour Govenment have pushed up military spending and finally environmental degradation and resource depletion. Anybody who is familiar with the UK know about the general practice of sewage dumping in the sea as an example.

Let’s start with the Royal Navy which has too few ships to do its job effectively. And the navy vessels it does have, keep breaking down. The HMS Prince of Wales - the flagship of the navy - has spent more time in dry dock for repairs than at sea. Embarrassingly, the aircraft carrier recently suffered flooding, and had to pull out of NATO exercises due to reliability problems. And in testing, trident (the UK’s expensive nuclear weapons system) doesn’t even work - the missiles malfunctioned and fell into the sea. The abysmal state of the Royal Navy - once the world’s greatest fleet- is a perfect metaphor for the state of Britain today. This has come about as a consequence of  under-investment and government incompetence. It would take £80 billion per year to fund the military properly, plus £150 billion of investment to deal with backlogs and shortfalls. We are required to overpay now because we didn't keep up.

Remember this is Britain we are talking about and not Russia.

Just one year in the public has lost faith in government. Keir Starmer is the most unpopular Prime Minister ever recorded. The Labour party has fallen below 20% in the polls, their worst performance ever and the Conservatives are also unpopular and discredited. The government is poorly-led, lacking in both imagination and moral principles, has low legitimacy, and has proved itself unable to deal seriously with any of these problems. Much of what they do is either theatre for the newspapers (and they can’t even get that right), or short-term fixes which do nothing to address underlying issues. People are disillusioned with the entire political class, and politicians are now less trusted than used-car salesmen and estate-agents. The government welfare budget is soaring out of control, while the NHS is increasingly struggling with an ageing population, increased demand for healthcare, a declining workforce and tax base to support it. Social care is an ongoing disaster. Mental health provision is virtually non-existent. Attempts to reform benefits have failed, with Labour MPs rebelling against their own government. Energy and housing are unaffordable for many. Food banks have spread across the country. One in three children is growing up in poverty, in a country that is supposedly among the rich nations. The UK is overly-dependent on imported energy, and does not have sufficient nuclear or renewable power to provide for its own needs - even if this picture is gradually changing. For one day last year more than 50% of UK power was resourced from renewables.

Within society as a whole, inequality continues to soar, yet nothing is being done about it. In fact quite the opposite, because the media is owned by wealthy billionaires that are benefiting from the situation. And the politicians are funded by the same powerful vested interests. Which is why they continually talk about “hard decisions”, yet it’s the people who suffer, not the wealthy elites who have everything stacked in their favour.

Remember this is Britain we are talking about and not the US

Brexit has tanked the economy and in a perfect microcosm of the issue Brexit gave us back our seas for fishing but also excluded us from export most of what we caught and pre-Brexit some 80% of catches were exported especially to France. We have regained control of what we catch but can no longer sell it price effectively and the net result is negative. A similar picture can be painted elsewhere and especially with the EU, but we have also lost much of our bargaining power as we are a smaller unit. Starmer's "avoid tariffs" with the US approach has already destroyed two British industries thanks to cheaper American imports with biofuel production being the standout example.

All of this is heading towards a crisis at some point in the not too distant future. There are other factors as well - rising nationalism in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. The decline of the Royal family. Brexit. Divisive debates over high immigration. Fears about loss of cultural identity and concerns about crime.

One might hope for the best, while preparing for the worst. Either way, the UK is in for a bumpy ride. Those who thought Brexit was a temporary disruption are in for a rude awakening. Rather, the experience of 2016 onwards has revealed the entire state is rotten to the core. States don’t usually collapse due to external pressure alone; they fall, because they’ve decayed from the inside.

I do sincerely hope I am wrong and on that pensive note I wish you, as always to stay safe and well my friends.