In recent weeks BitCoin has not only stablised, but is showing signs of growth. For the last week or so my alts have been predominantly green with the occasional daily correction and at the very least they have stopped going down. So this morning I asked myself if the current bear market is finally over.
I have done a bit of reading around and today I will share my findings with you. Please always DYOR!
From what I have read it appears that the current crypto bear market is likely in its late stages, but most credible analyses say it is not fully over yet. The data points to a market that is bottoming out rather than already recovering. This is very much in line with my gut feeling on it. The general consensus is that the current bear market is 4 - 6 months old depending on by which metric it is measures and probably the strongest single indicator is that BitCoin is still significantly down from its October 2025 peak of $126k, which admittedly was also a bubble because the price ran away with itself. Taking a broader look it does seem that ETF flows have reversed, and long‑term moving averages have broken and so we are at that stage that some analysts have dubbed the “final innings” of the downturn.
The clearest indicators that we are not quite out of murky waters yet is that there is still a significant amount of ETF outflow and while BitCoin's stablisation is a strong indicator the fact is that the growth in its price can hardly be called dynamic. This is against the backdrop of an overall tightening of global liquidity. What is more AltCoins are still continuing to suffer and many are drowning. In writing I am reminded about an article that I read today about not buying AltCoins anymore by @CryptoNewbieMum. I loved the line when she said she doesn't want a Lambo, because there isn't even the asphalt to drive it on where she lives, but she does want a good return on her investment.
What 2026 is likely to hold, and especially as we move into Q3 and then Q4 is a period of consolidation that can be described as neither a bull nor a bear. Within this there will be a stablisation of prices, which will then (hopefully) provide a platform for further growth, this as always will be dependent on a number of macro-factors including regulation, the geo-political situation and investment flows. Personally, and not research based, my feeling is that the market is ready to push again and for now we are just positioning ourselves and awaiting that spark which may come from a "whale slapping his tail", or some kind of an upgrade or a general improvement in trading conditions.
So all in all, the way I see 2026, it is a time to buckle up and hold on for the ride. Hodl the life out of your assets (be wary of dying alts!), stake where you can and trade carefully because in 2027 it is likely to get a whole lot better. I still have an eye on BitCoin hitting $170k during it's next cycle.
This is just my thoughts on the matter, but check it out yourself.
As always stay safe and well my friends.
