The signals are there every day when we check our crypto portfolio. It is red across the board. Slight corrections offer a temporary relief of green but that is all it is. Fortunately, I am sitting on a large stockpile of staked USDC but this in itself presents me with a dilemma. Do I stick or twist? Is this the bottom or should I just carry on staking at 4+%? I also need to factor in that the US dollar is currently quite suppressed and sorry to mix my currencies here (as you know I prefer GBP) but even a move of a single cent makes a big difference on the value of the USDC I am holding.
Anyhow moving on to the main point…
The October 2025 crypto crash was one of the most severe in history and as I have previously mentioned the main triggers (but by far not the only ones) were Donald Trump’s surprise announcement of 100% tariffs on Chinese imports which coincided with massive leveraged liquidations. We saw over $19 billion in positions wiped out in hours, with Bitcoin falling from $126K to below $105K and Ethereum dropping nearly 12%.
The question is what is next? A bear market or recovery?
First the bad news…
A quick browse around the internet this morning showed certain indicators, that suggest that the bears are coming out to play, are present. Traders are aggressively hedging with options that would suggest expectations of further downside while at the same time there has been a massive surge volatility with prices moving significantly. We must also remember that the continued U.S.–China tensions, that were a major cause remain unresolved.
Now the slightly better news...
Despite this, some AltCoins are showing indications of stabilisation with certain projects like showing signs of resilience. Developers have decided that this is an opportune moment to push updates to re-engage communities. It could also be argued that the crash was just a market reset that may serve as a necessary deleveraging event, clearing out unsustainable positions and setting the stage for healthier growth. A final positive is that despite the wipeout, retail investors are actively seeking “rebound plays,” suggesting speculative appetite remains.
Let’s remember one of the best times to enter the cryptoverse is during a bear market when prices are “low” (interpret low as you like!).
So, in the short term we should expect continued volatility and potential further decreases in value as macro factors play out but if geopolitical tensions ease, alongside appropriate (“dovish” was the word I found) indications from regulatory authorities a recovery could begin by Q1 2026. In the long term the crash might prove to be a catalyst for a more mature market structure and especially if regulatory clarity improves and leverage is better managed.
Some coins are more resilient than others, and again a quick scout around, seemed to indicate that privacy coins such as Zcash (ZEC) and Monero (XMR) are leading the charge, as investors seek decentralized alternatives amid geopolitical uncertainty. Likewise, AI-Linked Tokens (e.g. TAO) are gaining traction due to rising interest in AI-blockchain convergence. This is of course linked to a growing general interest in AI among the population on the whole. Those Layer 1 Ecosystems such as Solana (SOL), given their active developer communities and real-world use cases are also likely to come out of it in good condition.
In the meantime, the two giants (namely BitCoin & Ethereum), are just going to carry on doing their things. Each step back precedes another leap forwards in the longer term, even if there is some resistance in the shorter term. When this all pans out and assuming BitCoin drops to below $100k again this might represent the line that it will struggle to break at least for a time.
Please note I am not telling to go out and buy a whole load of SOL. As always DYOR.
This is just an overview of where I think the market is heading after a quick look around. As for me I think I am going to sit on my USDC a bit longer as I do have a habit of jumping too soon.
As always stay safe and well my friends.
