I noticed many people here are nearly obsessed with otherwise quite irrelevant questions, like: "how much will Bitcoin cost' (one day).
This question seems to worry mostly people who call themselves HODL'ers (in everyday terms this means people who buy and keep the asset long term - years, decades or millennia).
Because it hurts me to know the answer and because I am one of the people who believe in sharing rather than HODL'ing, in this post I disclose the expected price of BTC, together with the methodology to be used in homebrew attempts of fortune telling.
TL;DR
Expected price of Bitcoin is 76 thousand American dollars. Give or take some change.
And this is how you can make your own calculation. Make a table like this (you can just print or copy this one too) :
Fill the table with whatever probability you think BTC price level can attain one day ... it will start looking like this :
Notice that all probabilities must add up to 1.00 (100%). The vales in the third row are = price level x likelihood (e.g. 2.5 x 5% = 0.13, etc).
The red bold number is sum of the individual values (= 0.13 + 0.50 + ...)
MAKE SURE you use your own gut feelings to set the likelihoods right!
Mine added up to something like this:
Et voila !
Expected value of Bitcoin is USD 76.000,00. Seventy-six thousand American dollars.
If you are a HODL'er and the price is below 76k - buy, if it is over 76k -sell. Otherwise HODL ;-)
BTW note the experiment's time horizon - years, perhaps millennia ...
cover image attribution: Jon Tyson via Unsplash
