Bitcoin: weekly market analysis (from 24 December to 30 December 2019 on USDT / BTC pair)

I start immediately by saying that we are still well below $ 8,000, a point above which we could consider bitcoin again bullish. The feeling right now is that sentiment is definitely low and that the community expects bitcoin to hit a new low shortly; waiting for halving to approach, that is, the halving of the miners' reward scheduled for next spring, it seems that the community is well pleased with the current weakness and intends to take advantage of it to fill up on bitcoins at the lowest possible price.

USDT / BTC is still early to buy

Although the new candle of the month surprised us by opening a little above the pivot point (it hadn't happened since June), the bulls' effort was timid, the price was not even able to test the R1; once the support is broken, which corresponds precisely to the pivot point, we will inevitably have a test of the S1 (in the 6300 $ area) and perhaps also of the S2 (in the 5555 $ area).

It is legitimate to believe that all this will happen within a month, so the beginning of 2020 does not seem destined to be positive for bitcoin. A little optimism comes instead from the weekly chart, on which it seems to glimpse the possibility of a reversal; in fact if bitcoin manages to exceed 8 thousand dollars the MACD would return bullish, as well as the parabolic SAR.

Any bullish fantasy, however, is broken away by setting the ichimoku clouds that immediately give us the impression of being in a markedly bearish trend; impression that is confirmed by observing the 1D graph, which allows us to realize that the timid increases that we have seen in the last few days are nothing more than an upward retracement.

Weekly forecast

In principle, I would confirm my forecast a few weeks ago and that is that the new fund for bitcoin will be around $ 4500; for now there are no extremes to change this forecast, so tap on patience and wait for the price to run its course.

The hope is that with the approach of halving a little enthusiasm will return in the community, however if this does not happen and, as reported by several analysts, this time the halving of the reward of the miners should not have its usual catapult effect on the price there is a real risk that the bears will be able to drag us even further down, perhaps up to the previous minimum of a year ago, around $ 3000.

Better to be careful and wait for a clear reversal signal before going back to buy again.

Please note: this post is not intended to provide in any way financial advice relating to how to invest your money but it is purely educational