Bitcoin: weekly market analysis (from 7 January to 13 January 2020 on USDT / BTC pair)
Even if the current prices are around $ 8100 the advice can only be to wait a little longer before taking a position, net of this, however, it will be convenient to go immediately and go and have a look at the graphs to try to clarify a little ideas.
USDT / BTC there is a grizzly in the corridor
We start, as usual, from our beloved 30D chart that shows us how the MACD came back bearish last month and, above all, observing the ichimoku clouds, the first thing that catches the eye is that if the price fails to return above $ 9500 by the end of the month it would end up breaking the clouds.
Looking at the pivot points, however, we notice how in the past few days there has been a breakdown of the R1, so we are led to believe that, after a first retracement, a test of the R2 will also take place; in fact, because the clouds are not broken, the bullish action on the price will have to continue until the R3 is also tested, in the $ 9753 area.
Turning to the 7D graph, however, any form of optimism aroused by the 30-day time frame is wiped out; here the first thing we notice is that there was a bearish crossing of the moving averages on the ichimoku (in October), with the price that broke the clouds (in December) and the increases of the last few days appear as a trivial retracement.
In addition, the price is currently very close to the lower edge of the cloud ($ 8527) and although the MACD seems to be returning to the upside, the feeling is that we can hardly have a break of $ 8500 and that the price will be violently rejected by the bears in the turn of a few days.
This thesis is also confirmed by setting the bollinger bands, here in fact we immediately see that the price does not seem to be able to break the median, so the most likely scenario sees a retracement around the $ 6350 quota that could take place between now and the end of the month .
Turning to the 1D graph it becomes crucial to correctly interpret the ichimoku clouds; here, in fact, we see a bullish crossing of the moving averages that occurred at the end of December, with the price that seems intent to emerge from the cloud, in which it has been embedded in the last seven days, however it is the delay line that should worry us.
If, as plausible, the price should not be able to break the last maximum (precisely in the $ 8500 area) the delay line would not be able to emerge out of the cloud, making the purchase signal weaker and almost certainly ending up giving birth to an important retracement.
Weekly forecast
Even though the bulk of the social community is flaunting security and enthusiasm, I am forced to admit that, having to stop at what I see on the charts, my bitcoin approach is decidedly bearish at the moment; I go further, I would not bet even € 1 on the breakdown of $ 8500 and what I expect in the next seven days are a couple of powerful paws from the bears.
However this analysis could prove to be wrong and, to be completely honest, in the last few days I have had the opportunity to observe some analyzes that are circulating on social networks with a completely opposite sign and that instead show a decidedly very strong ongoing bullish trend; personally I expect that between today and tomorrow the BTC price should fall below $ 8000, if this does not happen it would be more than valid reason to review my orientation in a more optimistic key.
Currently, however, I feel I would advise against going long on BTC, it would be an operation in my opinion excessively risky; obviously never like in this case I hoped to be the one who was wrong, but it will be up to wait next Monday to find out if my analysis or those of the bulls circulating on social media are correct, in any case in the next few days we will see some beautiful ones.
Please note: this post is not intended to provide in any way financial advice relating to how to invest your money but has purely educational purposes.
