Michigan vs. Wisconsin 10/2/2021 College Football Picks, Prediction, and Preview

By PickPub | pickpub | 29 Sep 2021

Michigan visits Wisconsin on 10/2/2021 at 12:00PM.

Michigan and Wisconsin face off in a regular season matchup. Games are on campuses and crowds are full once again! Michigan sports a record of 4-0 this season. Wisconsin is 1-2 this season. Enough preamble… Let’s get to the preview…

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Michigan Team Defense Preview

Michigan has had 45 defensive drives in non-garbage time minutes and they yield 5.82 plays per drive. Michigan’s opponents run a lot of plays per drive and this leads to fatigue in the Fourth Quarter. Michigan has had a generally average defense. Nothing too special about it, but they are capable of rising up when needed. Passing plays are 48.47% of their opponents’ play calls.Opponents typically have had some form of run/pass balance against them.

Michigan is not doing anything particularly special as far as their ability to create negative yardage plays on the ground. Opponent rushing yards attributed to their offensive line this season comes out to 2.85 yards per carry. Generally speaking, this is an average defense when it comes to how offensive lines control or fail to control them on the ground. When it comes to getting to that second level, running backs are getting stopped. This defense does not allow themselves to be gashed. The breakout rushing plays are simply not happening, it is a massive reach to expect them to give up big rushing plays.

This Defense has had average success disrupting the flow of the opposing offense. Their front seven is simply unable to make an impact, something must change or else the problems will repeat. Michigan has had shown themselves to be better at stopping the pass than the run this season .

Michigan Team Offense Preview

Michigan has had 44 total drives this season and they generate 5.64 plays per drive. There is not much to take away here when it comes to how many plays per drive they run , but they are a team that falls in the average window when it comes to plays per drive. Michigan has had shown a capability to be explosive on first and second down to avoid third downs and has had converted well (relatively) on 3rd and 4th Down situations. Passing plays are 25.81% of their play calls.They favors running the ball as opposed airing it out.

Michigan is not doing anything particularly special as far as their ability to avoid negative yardage plays on the ground. How effective is the offensive line given what we know about their ability to prevent negative yards on rushing plays? More than you think, thanks to the Adjusted Line Yards metric. Michigan can take credit for 3.24 yards per carry. It is acceptable to say that this season ‘s offensive line may be underappreciated, even though the running backs get the attention. The Michigan coaching staff really deserves credit for how they prepared this season ‘s offensive line, but they could be a little bit better! This is a team that is rather above-average when it comes to gashing defenses. The threat of the run forces opponents to play more honest and assignment defensive football is a must, especially against zone read looks. Featuring an explosive running game… they are capable of breaking big yardage runs on First and Second Down. This puts a lot of pressure on Linebackers and Safeties.

Michigan bullied and controlled defenses this season , defenses are not to dictate what this offense is able to do to them. Opponents should consider a containment strategy. Michigan is among the best in the country at keeping defensive front sevens at bay. In order to stop this offense, it requires opposing defenses to need secondary players to step up and cause trouble in order for the offense to be disrupted. Michigan is a better running team than passing team this season .

Wisconsin Team Defense Preview

Wisconsin has had 36 defensive drives in non-garbage time minutes and they yield 4.36 plays per drive. Relatively speaking, Wisconsin are not a team that allows many plays per drive. The defense either gives up big plays quickly or induces a lot of three-and-outs, we shall find out more. Third and long situations are common against this season ‘s defense. This is a defense that forces opponents to commit penalties, have compromised offensive line play, and fail to convert on crunch possessions. Passing plays are 62.42% of their opponents’ play calls.They are a team that faces a lot of Air Raid Offenses.

Wisconsin opponents have had struggled with running the ball and the defense crushed the spirits of their opponents with zero or negative yard plays. 4th and Short is not a cake walk, maybe passing on 4th and Short or having some sort of RPO is the way to go because if an Offensive Coordinator thinks that they can just line up and run a Quarterback Sneak or hand it off to a tailback against this season ‘s defense, they are mistaken. Opponent rushing yards attributed to their offensive line this season comes out to 1.74 yards per carry. Opponent offensive lines have had been simply unable to support their running games against their defense. When it comes to getting to that second level, running backs are getting stopped. This defense does not allow themselves to be gashed. The breakout rushing plays are simply not happening, it is a massive reach to expect them to give up big rushing plays.

Wisconsin have had made the turnover belt, chain, pads, lunch pail or whatever gimmick they use change hands a lot. This is a Defense that causes pure aggravation. Wisconsin should have a sign ready for opponents near the Visitor Locker Room that says “Welcome to Hell”, their front seven is deep and they cause a lot of problems. Wisconsin is better at stopping the run than the pass this season .

Wisconsin Team Offense Preview

Wisconsin has had 41 total drives this season and they generate 5.66 plays per drive. There is not much to take away here when it comes to how many plays per drive they run , but they are a team that falls in the average window when it comes to plays per drive. Wisconsin has had shown a capability to be explosive on first and second down to avoid third downs and has had converted well (relatively) on 3rd and 4th Down situations. Wisconsin passes the football 42.67% of the time.They favors running the ball as opposed airing it out.

Wisconsin is not doing anything particularly special as far as their ability to avoid negative yardage plays on the ground. Based on the Adjusted Line Yards metric, which measures the amount of credit that should be ascribed to the offensive line for a rushing play, they average 3.01 yards per carry. Generally speaking, this is an average offensive line as far as their ability to set up the running game. When it comes to getting to that second level where linebackers have not crashed down on the line of scrimmage, they are getting stopped with ease. With a relatively average explosiveness in the running game, breakout rushing plays are possible, but it is not something to count on from them.

Defenses have had trouble making big, disruptive plays against Wisconsin this season. They have had done a relatively good job done by this Offensive Line to prevent opposing front sevens from causing problems consistently. Wisconsin is a better running team than passing team this season .

The Michigan Roster

The Players to Watch for Michigan

Cade McNamara QB 6’1″ 205 Sophomore

Cade McNamara put up 534 yards, tossed 3 touchdowns, and he threw 0 interceptions this season. He was considered one of the gunslingers of College Football this season. His average completed pass was 10.1 yards. His mobility and the staff’s willingness to use it for the purposes of generating yardage is average. His average rush was 0.3 yards.

Blake Corum RB 5’8″ 200 Freshman

Blake Corum had 475 rushing yards on 69 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He had 7 rushing touchdowns. He is considered one of the workhorse running backs of College Football returning this season. His average rush was 6.9 yards. He is a consistent option in the passing game considering that he is a running back. When he catches a pass, he generates on average 6.9 yards.

Cornelius Johnson WR 6’3″ 205 Sophomore

Cornelius Johnson picked up 198 yards through the air. He caught the ball 8 times this season. He reached the end zone 1 times. He was a consistent option in the passing game this season. When he catches a pass, he generates on average 24.8 yards.

Aidan Hutchinson DL 6’6″ 269 Junior

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Michigan, Aidan Hutchinson, had 15 tackles this season.Among Defensive Tackles/Nose Tackles, he was clogging the gaps and playing disruptive proving he is one of the best at forcing lost yardage, he had 4 tackles for loss this season.He was among the best at disrupting things up the middle and getting to QBs, he had 4 sacks this season.

Daxton Hill DB 6’0″ 192 Sophomore

The leading tackler among Defensive Backs for Michigan, Daxton Hill, had 18 tackles this season.Among Defensive Backs, he was very active and disruptive in the backfield, he had 2 tackles for loss this season.He had 0.0 sacks this season.

The Wisconsin Roster

The Players to Watch for Wisconsin

Graham Mertz QB 6’3″ 225 Sophomore

Graham Mertz put up 566 yards, tossed 1 touchdowns, and he threw 5 interceptions. He tends to throw shorter length passes, he’d be accused of being too safe or not being trusted by his coaches. His average completed pass was 6.0 yards. His mobility and the staff’s willingness to use it for the purposes of generating yardage is average. His average rush was -2.6 yards.

Chez Mellusi RB 5’11” 200 Sophomore

Chez Mellusi had 319 rushing yards on 69 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He had 2 rushing touchdowns. He is considered one of the workhorse running backs of College Football returning this season. His average rush was 4.6 yards. He was relied upon as a receiver in their offense this season. When he catches a pass, he generates on average 4.6 yards.

Danny Davis III WR 6’0″ 193 Senior

Danny Davis III picked up 193 yards through the air. He caught the ball 16 times this season. He reached the end zone 0 times. He is a go-to in the passing game. When he catches a pass, he generates on average 12.1 yards.

Keeanu Benton NT 6’4″ 313 Junior

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Wisconsin, Keeanu Benton, had 4 tackles this season.Among Defensive Tackles/Nose Tackles, he was clogging the gaps and playing disruptive proving he is one of the best at forcing lost yardage, he had 2 tackles for loss this season.He had 0 sacks this season.

Matt Henningsen DE 6’3″ 292 Senior

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Wisconsin, Matt Henningsen, had 7 tackles this season.Among Defensive Tackles/Nose Tackles, he was clogging the gaps and playing disruptive proving he is one of the best at forcing lost yardage, he had 4 tackles for loss this season.He was among the best at disrupting things up the middle and getting to QBs, he had 2 sacks this season.

Scott Nelson S 6’2″ 204 Senior

The leading tackler among Defensive Backs for Wisconsin, Scott Nelson, had 7 tackles this season.Among Defensive Backs, he was very active and disruptive in the backfield, he had 1 tackles for loss this season.He had 0.0 sacks this season.

Faion Hicks CB 5’10” 194 Senior

The leading tackler among Cornerbacks for Wisconsin, Faion Hicks, had 8 tackles this season.He forced 0 tackles for loss this season.He had 0.0 pick-offs this season.