Bitcoin Might Not Be A Haven Of Peace

Over the past decade, the evolution and perception of Bitcoin may be best characterized by a revolving door. Designed as a peer-to-peer electronic payment system, Bitcoin is today considered a store of value, an asset with safe havens that can be used to protect against socio-political and economic uncertainty.

But is this the case? Well, it's hard to say because the literature and research on the issue is often sketchy and confusing.

Two recent research articles have    sought to have the final say on the subject by studying the refuge characteristics of Bitcoin in recent months. The documents were ambiguous in their conclusions, claiming that Bitcoin did not record any notable safe haven features. In fact, according to one of these documents, Bitcoin's performance compared to the Safe-Haven index has largely exceeded its co-movement with the same, which is why, at most, Bitcoin is a safe haven ” fortunate ".

The use of the word "lucky" might be interesting, but it is certainly not correct. In fact, it can be said that these results and the dataset used to achieve them are biased compared to Bitcoin .

Think about it - there is a recency bias that comes into play here because the data set also considers the performance Bitcoin as a refuge during the period when global markets have noted induced fusion coronavirus. For an active as young as Bitcoin , who had not faced a Black Swan event until the aforementioned collapse during his lifetime, the results were always going to be variable compared to the average recorded by other safe havens well experienced like gold and the United States. Treasury bonds.

Interestingly, the document also observed that other safe havens such as gold and US Treasuries have also underperformed since the crisis. This suggests one of two things, 1) No asset is more of a safe haven, or 2) The market crash triggered by the coronavirus was beyond the scope of what these assets were supposed to protect. Either way, it means Bitcoin may have been tried too harshly, perhaps unfairly.


Then there is the case of Bitcoin's growing correlation with the stock market and the S & P500. The so-called safe haven characteristics of Bitcoin n ' have not been helped by the fact that most cryptocurrency world crashed so dramatically when S & P did. So much for being uncorrelated and a refuge, huh?

However, such conclusions can also blow the pistol. People forget that Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market are young and their collective market capitalization is only a fraction of something like the S & P500. This is the case compared to shelters like gold.

Also, for all uncorrelated discussions, people forget that most investors make their money on the stock market and use it to invest in Bitcoin , not vice versa, which is why until Bitcoin has its own competitive capitalization, such correlations will persist, even if the comparisons are in vain.

So, is Bitcoin apparently devoid of safe haven features, a concern? Well, a multitude of measures would suggest no. Hodlers, aka the number of daily active addresses holding Bitcoin for at least 12 months, for example, hit a record high last month, a sign of people expecting the value of cryptocurrency to rise 'to come up.

These expectations are also fueled by the fact that global monetary stimulus plans are starting to take effect around the world, a development that will be bullish for the financial markets and, by extension, the Bitcoin market .

So even if Bitcoin failed the safe haven test, investors remain optimistic about the prospect of gains they could make in the short term.

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