Welcome back to NFL Picks!
WEEK 5 SUMMARY
11 out of 16! Definitely not bad!
Still hoping to crack that magic 75% accuracy per week, which has been tough with so many injuries around the league and crazy endings! This week has a great opportunity for us to beat the market!
AND HEY! THE FALCONS WON!
TOTALS: 16 picks — 11 correct/5 incorrect (69% accuracy)
BALANCE: $160 placed - $153 as return = -$7
SEASON TOTALS: 80 picks — 49 correct/31 incorrect (61% accuracy)
SEASON BALANCE: $640 placed - $548,9 as return =-$98,1
NOW LET'S MOVE ON TO WEEK 6!
Again, all picks are linked with a virtual $10 bet in each of them, and odds according to Betfair.com.
DISCLAIMER: I'm not sponsored by Betfair.com in any way. This will only be added as a reference to win probability in each game. It's all for fun!
BE GENEROUS WITH THE TIPS — TO YOURSELF
COMMENTS ARE ALWATS APPRECIATED!
WEEK 6 PICKS
- TB @ PHI - Winner: TB (Odds: 1.28 - Possible payout: $12.8 - Possible profit: $2.8 28%)
- So, the Brady Bunch kicks things off on Thursday. Eagles have been a super hard team to gauge this season, although this challenge might be a bit much. Bucs' passing offense is just too much to handle right now.
- MIA @ JAX - Winner: JAX (Odds: 2.4 - Possible payout: $14 - Possible profit: $4 140%)
- My first upset candidate for the week. Situation in Jacksonville is still not tamed after the mess resulting from Urban Meyer... well, you know! On the other hand, Brissett is still the QB for the Fins and he was limited on Wed.. A couple of other important players should also be far from 100%. I'm picking the Jaguars to end this skid they find themselves in to right now.
- HOU @ IND - Winner: IND (Odds: 1.18 - Possible payout: $11.8 - Possible profit: $1.8 18%)
- Both teams playing this game showed us last week how bad teams stay bad. Both had the game under control and an easy win on their sights, but they've managed to lose due to poor play-calling and questionable kicking efforts. I don't see this game being as easy as the odds suggest, but I still believe Colts have the edge here.
- GB @ CHI - Winner: GB (Odds: 1.42 - Possible payout: $14.2 - Possible profit: $4.2 42%)
- We won't be able to know for a few weeks if the Bears winning in Vegas was due to Justin Fields improving massively or just a disgruntled Raiders locker room after the 'Gruden radioactive mailbox' incident. But while everyone effusively praises the Arizona and LA Chargers, Packers are doing their thing and piercing their belts with W's week after week. This division still belongs to them, and I see no change in the foreseeable future.
- KC @ WAS - Winner: KC (Odds: 1.32 - Possible payout: $13.2 - Possible profit: $3.2 32%)
- We might be reaching Defcon 1 in Missouri if this team still wants to get a first round bye this season. Even winning the division might be in jeopardy, given what the Chargers have been displaying. They need this win at Washington in the worst way! They might be without Helaire and Chris Jones (again) though, while Tyreek Hill is limited in practice. Not gonna say this is about to be a blowout, but Mahomes should deliver against a weak secondary.
- MIN @ CAR - Winner: CAR (Odds: 1.95 - Possible payout: $19.5 - Possible profit: $9.5 95%)
- Huge game, underrated in terms of playoff implications. And a very tough matchup on the field. CMC might be back for the Panthers, but so might Cook be for the Vikes. MIN looks to run a mistake-free offense, while CAR still has one of the best defenses in the league in a couple of metrics. I'm picking the home team on this one, although this game could really go either way.
- LAC @ BAL - Winner: LAC (Odds: 2.25 - Possible payout: $22.5 - Possible profit: $12.5 125%)
- What a great game this one should be! This immortal Ravens team led by Lamar vs. the red-hot Chargers team led by one of the MVP candidates in Herbert. A lot to unpack in the matchups. Injuries might have the Ravens OL a bit shaky this week, while Mike Williams was limited for the Chargers. LAC will also have a long trip to the East Coast and have them playing on the early window will surely make things harder. However, the Colts might have laid a blueprint for what (and what not) to do against this Baltimore team. A very bright coach in Staley might have a refined version of the Colts gameplan: one that doesn't give the game away in the Q4. I'm taking the upset on this one. Odds are too good to ignore.
- CIN @ DET - Winner: CIN (Odds: 1.42 - Possible payout: $14.2 - Possible profit: $4.2 42%)
- The Bengals gave the Packers more than they were expecting to chew, in a way. Let's just not forget all the missed FGs by the usually very reliable M. Crosby. On the other hand, the Lions are one of the clubs in our 'how bad teams stay bad' yearly column. That loss to the Vikings was heartbreaking and unacceptable. I'm going with the LSU connection powering the Bengals towards a W.
- LAR @ NYG - Winner: LAR (Odds: 1.16 - Possible payout: $11.6 - Possible profit: $1.6 16%)
- Just too many Injuries for the NYG to handle against an explosive team. Add Saquon to that list now! It's tough to imagine how things can get worse for this group.
- ARI @ CLE - Winner: ARI (Odds: 2.4 - Possible payout: $24 - Possible profit: $14 140%)
- And there it is: my second shot at 'cut against the grain' this week! The odds have the undefeated Cardinals as underdogs, facing the Browns in Cleveland. I really like both teams this season, each one being very entertaining to watch for different reasons. I'm gonna go ahead and say that I think Murray's targets downfield might be too much to handle for this secondary, while, at the same time, Murray is arguably the best QB when facing pressure this season. If they keep up this level of performance, they should win.
- LVR @ DEN - Winner: DEN (Odds: 1.5 - Possible payout: $15 - Possible profit: $5 50%)
- So... That Gruden thing, huh? Well, let's put that aside and focus on what matters, although that is precisely what can make this game very unpredictable. Tough to think this Vegas group will be able to shake that whole mess so fast with an recently-installed interim HC at the helm. Denver was a huge letdown last week: not just losing, but losing in very disappointing fashion. I'm gonna take the safe bet in this one and rely on the fact that the Broncos are not a franchise in disarray right now and are playing at home.
- DAL @ NE - Winner: DAL (Odds: 1.5 - Possible payout: $15 - Possible profit: $5 50%)
- This will be a great test in which we'll be able to see the maturity of this Cowboys team. They've been playing great this season, but the Pats, although they are far from their level seen in the last decade, is still able to put up great gameplans and be a nuisance to anyone coming to town — ask Tom Brady. I'm going with the better team here, and sincerely hoping to watch Dak can, for the good of the league, put up a next-level top-shelf QB performance.
- SEA @ PIT - Winner: PIT (Odds: 1.4 - Possible payout: $14 - Possible profit: $4 40%)
- The Russell Wilson factor — or the abscence of it. Odds heavily favoring the Steelers since Geno Smith is the next man up under center for Seattle. He did show one great drive filling up for Wilson last Thursday, but this time around he's gonna have to play the whole game. Plus, what is happening with Seattle's defense? They can't stop anyone! Steelers have shown some fighting spirit in them last week and I'm picking them to win simply because there's just too many bad news to ignore on the Seahawks front.
- BUF @ TEN - Winner: BUF (Odds: 1.38 - Possible payout: $13.8 - Possible profit: $3.8 38%)
- So, the Bills went into Arrowhead and beat up the Chiefs pretty good, huh? Suddenly looking like the undisputed best team in the AFC. It's gonna be hard for this Titans group to stop a team so well-rounded and playing with so much intensity. If they enter Q4 losing by two possessions (which is quite possible), there may be no time or chance for Derrick Henry to shock another home-stretch magic. Bills are heavily favorites for a reason. The #1 team in the AFC should take another W home.