Welcome back to NFL Picks!
WEEK 1 SUMMARY
We didn't do very well, but let's face it: Week 1 is always a bit crazy! Haha
While I got right that the Dolphins and Cardinals would emerge victorious away from home, despite being underdogs, I did whiff HARD on the Jets and Jaguars (they didn't stand a chance; that much was clear as we reached halftime).
In some other cases, things went completely different to what everyone was expecting them to go. I'm talking about Packers, Bills, Falcons (huge letdown) and Ravens.
TOTALS: 16 picks — 8 correct/8 incorrect (50% accuracy)
BALANCE: $160 placed - $126,2 as return = -$33,8
SEASON TOTALS: 16 picks — 8 correct/8 incorrect (50% accuracy)
SEASON BALANCE: $160 placed - $126,2 as return =-$33,8
NOW LET'S MOVE ON TO WEEK 2!
Again, all picks are linked with a virtual $10 bet in each of them, and odds according to Betfair.com.
DISCLAIMER: I'm not sponsored by Betfair.com in any way. This will only be added as a reference to win probability in each game. It's all for fun!
BE GENEROUS WITH THE TIPS — TO YOURSELF
COMMENTS ARE ALWATS APPRECIATED!
WEEK 2 PICKS
- NYG @ WAS - Winner: WAS (Odds: 1.5 - Possible payout: $15 - Possible profit: $5 50%)
- I'm taking WAS here because that DL should be just too much for an OL that's still shaky and a QB that is knows for having more fumbles than TDs thrown. Saquon Barkley is also listed as Questionable. So... WAS takes this one.
- LVR @ PIT - Winner: PIT (Odds: 1.38 - Possible payout: $13.8 - Possible profit: $3.8 38%)
- I'm sure everybody loved the Monday Night Football! What a game that was. I still see LVR in need of a lot of adjustments on the defensive side, and PIT defense should give Derek Carr a lot more problems than the Ravens unit did, especially playing at Heinz Field. I do think it's gonna be a close game, though.
- CIN @ CHI - Winner: CHI (Odds: 1.6 - Possible payout: $16 - Possible profit: $6 60%)
- Suuuuper tough game to pick the winner, in my opinion. Bears got routed in LA... Bengals did win in Week 1, but against a Vikings team that seems to lack the intensity required to win a game in the NFL. This game can go either way. I'm betting on Justin Fields taking the field for more snaps and Soldier Field being a factor here.
- HOU @ CLE - Winner: CLE (Odds: 11.2 - Possible payout: $11.2 - Possible profit: $1.2 12%)
- Probably the "most certain" pick of the week. This Browns unit was about to beat the Chiefs away from home, if it wasn't for a 5-minute blackout in Q3.
- LAR @ IND - Winner: LAR (Odds: 1.42 - Possible payout: $14.2 - Possible profit: $4.2 42%)
- Slamdunking on the Bears at home isn't exactly worth a trophy, but that level of performance displayed when the game required the Rams unit to actually "play for real" was a joy to watch. I still don't see the Colts offensive identity or solid plans/alternatives to score on a given game.
- BUF @ MIA - Winner: MIA (Odds: 2.5 - Possible payout: $25 - Possible profit: $15 150%)
- The Dolphins went to the Dragon's lair and slayed its tenant! It wasn't pretty (just like I imagined) and they were saved by 2 fumbles by Pats RBs. I'm taking them as the upset of the week. Oh, by the way: it's Florida... and September! It should be hot and humid! Expect that to be a factor.
- NE @ NYJ - Winner: NE (Odds: 1.38 - Possible payout: $13.8 - Possible profit: $3.8 38%)
- If this Pats team loses to a Jets team that got trampled by the Panthers, and now without a few starters due to injury... man, I do not know how deep is this pit which they find themselves in. I fully expect a classic Belichick win: conservative QB play and an unforgiving defense facing a rookie QB.
- SF @ PHI - Winner: SF (Odds: 1.45 - Possible payout: $14.5 - Possible profit: $4.5 45%)
- Yes, the Eagles made me look like a fool last week, but I'm still not sold on them. The 49ers are an offensive juggernaut and should get away with a win. This has potential to be a shootout, by the way.
- NO @ CAR - Winner: NO (Odds: 1.45 - Possible payout: $14.5 - Possible profit: $4.5 45%)
- Two teams that made me look bad as well, for different reasons. I'm taking the Saints because the display against the Packers was remarkable, despite the Packers own faults contributing to that result.
- DEN @ JAX - Winner: DEN (Odds: 1.35 - Possible payout: $13.5 - Possible profit: $3.5 35%)
- For sure, the Broncos need to clean up their act on a couple of spots, because they are a certain to show up against better competition. However, they should have enough in their pockets to handle the Jaguars. Denver's DL is sure to give Trevor Lawrence fits.
- MIN @ ARI - Winner: ARI (Odds: 1.42 - Possible payout: $14.2 - Possible profit: $4.2 42%)
- You cannot convince me that the Vikings will be able to stop the Cardinals offense. Or defense. At Arizona. I'm sorry, but that's way too much.
- ATL @ TB - Winner: TB (Odds: 1.1 - Possible payout: $11 - Possible profit: $1 10%)
- These aren't the lowest odds of the week by accident. It should be a very comfortable win for the Bucs. It's their game to lose.
- DAL @ LAC - Winner: LAC (Odds: 1.58 - Possible payout: $15.8 - Possible profit: $5.8 58%)
- This is brewing up to be a great football game! Cowboys played one heck of a game against the defending champions and Dak looked sharp. Chargers did not play a fantastic game in Week 1, but they are going to be at home. The news that DeMarcus Lawrence broke his foot today are heartbreaking for certain: he's the best player on that team, period. I'm taking LAC here, guessing the Cowboys are going to miss their players' abscences due to injury.
- TEN @ SEA - Winner: SEA (Odds: 1.38 - Possible payout: $13.8 - Possible profit: $3.8 38%)
- Usually, on the surface, the Seahawks present a different kind of offense than the one the Titans faced on Week 1. Sure, Wilson and his targets can be very explosive, but it's a more conservative type of playcalling. Nonetheless, it's tough to beat Seattle at home and the Titans don't seem up to the task at this point.
- KC @ BAL - Winner: KC (Odds: 1.42 - Possible payout: $14.2 - Possible profit: $4.2 42%)
- Another great game in sight! Ravens need to answer to a lot of questions after what happened in Las Vegas. Some recklessness on defense and crucial mistakes on offense had them losing a game that they had on their hands in a very disappointing fashion. The Chiefs are a better unit than the Raiders, though. Especially on offense. That's what I see deciding this game.
- DET @ GB - Winner: GB (Odds: 1.12 - Possible payout: $11.2 - Possible profit: $1.2 12%)
- The way the Packers lost on Sunday was so bad it had people ventilating conspiracy theories about how "Rodgers was back with Green Bay just to play poorly the entire year and get some revenge". I don't believe that for a second. They got punched in the mouth, they should be back to good form this week. The Lions coming to town seems like the perfect opportunity.