CPI Is Out, the Fed Is 4 Days Away: 3 Rules I'm Using to Survive Fed Week

Friday's print is history. Wednesday's decision is the only thing that matters now — and this one comes with the dot plot, nineteen officials stamping rate paths for the next two years. The most dangerous week of the quarter starts Monday.

I've survived enough Fed weeks to know my opinions don't matter that week. My rules do. Here are the three I'm trading by — and the one mistake I refuse to repeat.

Rule 1: Cut size in half before Wednesday 2 PM ET

FOMC volatility is a tax on leverage. The statement, the press conference, and then the market re-reading the dot plot overnight — that's three separate repricing events inside twenty-four hours. Half size means you survive all three with your thesis intact.

The mistake I made in the last two Fed weeks was keeping full size "because I was right about the direction." Being right about direction and being right about timing are two different trades. I only get paid for the second one.

Rule 2: Trade the oil-inflation link, not the headline

With Brent above $100 and wholesale inflation at 5.4%, the word "transitory" is dead. Every inflation print this quarter is partly an oil print. So instead of guessing CPI, I watch WTI: above $100, hike chatter stays alive no matter what the data says; back under $96, the market can exhale. That's a cleaner signal than any headline — and almost nobody is positioned for it.

Rule 3: Watch USD/JPY more than the dot plot

Here's the one nobody talks about enough. The yen sits around 153 after repeated intervention, shorts are still crowded, and the BOJ may hike this month. If USD/JPY snaps through 150 in a hurry, the carry-trade unwind will sell your Bitcoin and your gold before the Fed finishes its first paragraph. 150 to 155 is my real fear gauge this week. The dot plot moves markets for a day; a yen squeeze moves them for a month. And for what it's worth, the gold traders I talk to are watching the same window — when real yields and the yen move together, $4,350 gold stops leading and starts following.

Monday's one-line checklist

Half size. WTI above or below $100. USD/JPY inside 150–155. All three green — I trade. One red — I watch.

My question for you

Which of the three rules do you disagree with — and what's the rule you'd add? Best answer gets pinned. I read every comment.

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