Knowing what you do now, would you go for an ICO 2.0 craze?

By Keith Thuerk | New to Crypto's? | 22 Apr 2021

Knowing what you do now, would you go for an ICO 2.0 craze?


Not many here in the Publish0x community are not aware of the market froth in late '17 entering early '18 some of that market foam came from ICO (Initial Coin Offerings).  Sure the ICO is much like IPO however, one must always pay attention to the market indicators and the ICO craze reminded me of the Stock Equity lunacy of late '99 into early '00 and we all know how that ended - the bubble burst.

So, all that knowledge must lead to better decision making; correct?  Ask yourself if this years Bull run suddenly brought a ton of new Crypto ICO's as the latest and greatest way to make money from investing....would you?  Let's call it ICO 2.0 for fun (not saying that what is taking place just role playing.)

Let us assume the "Cockroach Crypto" can solve crime and solve world hunger all at once. Cockroach ICO is coming to market at a really fair market value of $10 per token. You stop and do some quick analysis and determine and you can see the potential running to $100 within 2-3 weeks time or shorter.  Hmm, how much cash do we have on hand to take a position?  Okay, plan is coming together.  Then the global aid factors start to pile up (solving childhood hunger, ends crimes) and bingo it makes sense this is the best asymmetric investing opportunity since Netscape.  Now add in the big  equity boys (Goldman Slacks and JP Morgan are working together to bring this ICO to market) and they are bringing all their marketing and advertising resources to support Cockroach. The hype machine is in full affect, you see billboard ads, Browser pop-ups, here radio blitzes for Cockroach.  Oh, your better judgement is being assaulted and you know deep down inside this could be the one that allows you to retire early.  Oh well, better table this decision until morning.

A new day dawns and you wakeup to a cup of ground dirt and a couple of ads for Cockroach, your spider senses tingle, you hurry back to your liar and pull of the decision folder and quickly review your analysis.  Have I missed anything, you dive head first into more research and to your surprise you uncover a third global benefit. So you now know that Cockroach is a must pile into event, you sell your bike and your lawnmower to raise a little bit more capital and get ready to place your order.  A couple of days go by and you enter your ICO position then wait.

While you were sleeping 1000 other once in a lifetime Crypto's were also being positioned for ICO you just missed much of the hype.  Your Cockroach ICO opens with trading flurry, it opens at $98 then pops to $246. It rages all day and all night you are sitting well over $1250 after 24-hours.  Man you are sitting pretty.  Two-weeks elapse and then you are made for life each Cockroach token is worth an astounding $46, 900 each.  The ICO event has lifted the entire Crypto market to unseen heights and you hear all the clamoring it's different this time it won't come back down. 

Then out of the blue comes a scandal, not just any scandal but a Ponzi scheme to make Bernie Madoof look like a rookie happens and quickly overnight the markets sour and investors start running for the exits.  Wait, you forgot to put together an exit plan, quickly the market drops 20%, then 44%, you are still putting together the exit plan. Now markets are down 60% and your early retirement plans are evaporating before your eyes.  How could this happen you knew all the time, but you were caught flat footed.  You finally exit the market and eeek out a meager 5% gain.  After taxes, you lost 2%. 

Quite the ride over this course of fiction... Makes one wondering what have you really learned from past markets?  How much more prepared are you this go around?   Its not how much money you make its how much you keep.


Disclaimer - this is not investment advice, Cockroach Crypto is a fictional entity I made up just for this elaborative illustration. This is not investment advice just helping myself stay grounded as the 2021 Bull Market runs.



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Keith Thuerk
Keith Thuerk

Currently learning about Crypto's and DeFi to combat the Inflationary Tidal wave coming our way!

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