Cryptocurrency: Is the current trend up a "Reversion to the mean?"

Cryptocurrency: Is the current trend up a "Reversion to the mean?"


I have been reading about cryptocurrency and I cam across this article: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bernstein-bounce-cryptocurrencies-mean-reversion-124540680.html

Simply put, the theory about a reversion to the mean in theory suggests that markets tend to revert back to their average, or long term mean. Again, the mathematical mean is "the average of numbers," and in this case the average of what the numbers should be price wise for cryptocurrencies. 

I, like many I think were surprised at the prices going up late in 2022 and into late January 2023 (except for the last 24 hours). I had not thought about this idea suggested by Bernstein. Since I read about it I have and I find it intriguing. My initial estimation of when the markets would return to the bulls was by the middle to late summer of 2023.  I may have been wrong, and we will find out shortly if this current rally is sustainable, or a short reversion to the mean.

I am hoping that this is sustainable, but would not mind a few more months of buying cheap for the long run. I think, if my theory of buying solid crypto projects is accurate, that I will have a nice ROI and will be able to retire a few years earlier than I had planned. If not, life will be good since I have not over extended myself through crypto investment. I can afford to lose what I have put in, but don't want to.

I like the explanation provided in the article above describing what is currently going on. I am just not sure at this time if it is accurate.  

 

Any thoughts?

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