Here are the new US CPI and Core CPI data for September 2024: Inflation is once again crucial to Bitcoin's future
Inflation after interest rate cut
The long-awaited interest rate cut in the US by the Fed finally arrived last month. A 50 basis point cut that shook the markets, and that inevitably also affected the price of Bitcoin.
The CPI data had been fundamental in determining the strategies of traders and investors, and it is therefore essential to keep attention high this time too.
The importance of this event is enormous, and a demonstration of this is offered to us by the markets in these last few hours. Bitcoin, in particular, fell to $60,300 to recover, in these hours alone, $61k, for a crypto market that in general recorded a 2% drop in 24 hours.
The new CPI data is expected to show an increase of 0.1% month over month and 2.3% year over year, and the Fed will elaborate its policy precisely based on these elements. The forecasts alone have led many to believe that it is already time to block further rate cuts, and this scenario would not be the best for BTC as a “risky” asset.
The Fed itself, as revealed by the recently published minutes, although the decision makers were in the majority for a 50 bp cut, retained several representatives against this operation.
Inflation data
Most analysts remain convinced that the Fed's strategy will lead to a 25bp cut in interest rates in October and then keep them stable in November, but everything will be judged by the "macro" data of the coming weeks.
As the announcement approaches, the first cryptocurrency has recorded, as usual, a slight increase in volatility. And, as anticipated, with the CPI that had reached 2.5% yoy last month, forecasts have settled at 2.3%.
The data just published are slightly higher than expected:
CPI (yoy): +2.4%
Core CPI (yoy): +3.3%
Bitcoin seems to react timidly in the immediate future, traveling just above $60k but without giving strong signals for a strong rise. However, we will have to wait a little longer to see how investors will behave.