So I dunno if you've noticed, but crypto prices are pretty volatile.

BTC went from 63k to 30k in a fairly short amount of time. Personally, I've seen my portfolio value drop by a large number. It makes me sad.

But then I remind myself, crypto is a binary bet.

What I mean by that is that owning crypto at this point in history is betting that people in the future will find a non-government-controlled currency attractive.

There are no true cryptos that are used as money yet. Some people are starting to use BTC (and ETH to a lesser degree) as a sort of digital gold/store of value. That's a good first step, but it's only one element of money-ness.

Over the next few decades, we will see if crypto can become real money that is used in everyday life. If it doesn't and only stays as a digital store of value outside the fiat systems, that can still work.

If it survives at all over that time frame, the relative proportion of global wealth held in crypto has to increase dramatically.

If governments are successful at shutting down crypto (possible, but unlikely to me) or people just decide they'd rather be subject to bureaucrats' monetary decisions (seems really unlikely) then crypto is going to zero.

Personally, I'm betting a huge percentage of my net worth that people will continue to find an outlet from fiat money attractive, and governments won't be able to stop it since the genie is already out of the bottle.