Every week we say we're getting closer to the end of the war, but before the week is even over, a new bombing schedule emerges, either for the weekend or the following week. Unfortunately, it's impossible to predict the end of this cycle because we're not living in normal times. Furthermore, once peace is achieved, we will face a situation where every sector and every company affected by the supply shortage in the region will conduct a cost analysis and try to predict where they stand compared to before, and how long it will take for sales and profitability to recover. Meanwhile, a repair and reconstruction process will begin for all industrial facilities damaged and rendered inoperable in the war zone. Then come the predictions of "it won't be back to normal in 3 years, it won't be like it was before in 5 years"...

The worst part is that measuring this is also difficult. Remember, after Covid, the CEOs of the world's largest airlines said it would take 3-4 years for air traffic to return to normal, but the very next year, the number of passengers passing through TSA checkpoints exceeded pre-pandemic levels. In this oil shock, some are already talking about three years for supply to return to normal because repairing damaged refineries and other structures will take a very long time. Let me tell you something: if this issue is sealed with a real peace… they will do all the maintenance, repair, and reconstruction so quickly because money will be involved; you'll be amazed. The only condition is a real peace and, along with that peace, companies being able to invest in the region. Peace is a world of hope for now, but what if it holds?

It's impossible to ignore the stagflation and recession issues that are frequently shared in institutional reports, social media, and WhatsApp groups. They are partly right, we have to accept that. I've even discussed this issue in various TV appearances. But each time I said, "it's too early to say a stagflation is coming." Why is it too early? We have a high inflation rate and a slowing/slowing economy. But there are also ongoing investments and a technological revolution that is constantly increasing productivity. I'm not saying this myself; The global stock market is saying this:

Comparing this example to past oil shocks, it's possible to observe that in previous instances, the S&P 500 index fell much more significantly in response to such a sharp rise in oil prices. The fact that it hasn't fallen this time can be attributed to two widely discussed possibilities in the market. Firstly, it hasn't fallen "yet," but as supply cuts continue and the picture becomes clearer, the severity of the situation will be better understood, leading to sharp sell-offs in the markets. Secondly, despite all the events, the worst-case scenario has happened, yet the S&P 500 index only fell by 5%. This is because there are technological breakthroughs, growth, and investment.

First, the resulting economic devastation will be priced in. But not as a 50% drop as in the past. Perhaps around 7% or 10%. Then, I believe that semiconductors, chip manufacturers, AI developers, infrastructure software developers, nuclear engineers, and space technologists will once again thrive. Because growth will come from these sectors, and investment will flow in this direction. But don't think the war will end with an attack on Iran. After that, Taiwan is next. I don't know what timeline it will be in, but China won't forget this. To be honest, with the US once again bogged down in the Middle East, the Taiwan issue would be an easy maneuver, but I suppose they know something we don't.

Although the World Gold Council's data comes with a slight delay, it's a study I follow to see general trends. According to the most recent report, central banks may have re-entered the game. According to January data, many central banks had stopped buying gold, and some had even sold it. But in February, the central banks of Poland, Uzbekistan, the Czech Republic, Malaysia, China, and Cambodia bought a total of 35 tons of gold. The details show that the Czech Republic has been buying for 39 consecutive months, China for 16 months, Uzbekistan for 5 months, and Poland made its largest purchase in the last year. So, those whales I always talk about may be subtly starting to come in. But we're not yet seeing this in futures contracts and ETFs. Gold and silver bulls need a little more time.