Yesterday's US gross national product growth was 1.6%, while it was expected to be 2.5%. And frankly, there is an inflation data package that I have never followed, and I don't even know where or how it was calculated. There was also a number above expectations, but I don't know who created that expectation and what is in that number. Because the real inflation, the significant inflation number, is coming today. PCE core and PCE headline, which we call PCE, which the FED attaches great importance to, are coming today. The main critical issue is these two issues. Growth was 1.6 under 2.5. If you ask those economists, they probably don't know what that inflation data is. I mean, I'm pretty sure they didn't look at any of the lines and didn't know what it was. They're starting right away, CNBC loves it, Bloomberg loves it too, they all got stagflationary data.

Stagflationary data has arrived showing that the economy will slow down and inflation will be high at the same time. This data, for example the data we call gross national product data, is subject to three revisions. This first version is done with a survey. It consists of hundreds of lines. I wonder if those who shout about stagflation have ever analyzed these three revision issues? In almost every quarter, there are serious differences between the first estimated American growth data and the last one. It has happened before, last year is very low again in 2023. After that, it reaches 2.5% towards the end. America's treasury minister also said this yesterday. In other words, he said that this is being revised a lot, so don't pay attention to it.

But these memorizers, let's call them headline makers, immediately thought this was very bad, and then there was the inflation data. To be honest, I don't know what this inflation data is. I tried to understand his calculations but I didn't understand them and they made noise. However, if they were to get into this thing, if they were to get into the numbers a little bit, they would see the world a little differently. For example, American gross national product data. You can access this data from bea.gov. They publish and measure economic activity in different consumer goods or production items. personal consumptions and expenditures grew by 2.5%. The last line grew in parallel with the average growth of America, there is no problem. Gross private domestic investment grew by 3.2% and there is no shrinkage here either.

Housing investment grew by 13.9%. And even though the interest rates were high, people made huge housing investments and it grew by 13.9%. There is no problem here. There is a decrease in exports. This is normal, I think it will go up a little bit, but a decrease in exports is normal. Because America's exchange rate is different, it is too strong, they have such a problem. On the import side, there is also an increase in imports. America is mainly a net importer anyway. But there is an increase in imports here. Because the exchange rate difference is more advantageous in imports, there is no such serious shrinkage here. There is 7.2% importation. There is a downsizing in export so far. Other than that, there is no shrinkage item. Do you know where shrinkage comes from? Government spending in the federal government shrank by 0.2%.

National defense, now look, just to make you understand how ridiculous the number is, it has shrunk by 0.6%. If you look at the previous quarters, it was 0.5 - 8.4 - 2.3 - 1.9, but this quarter it decreased by 0.6. While this Russia-Ukraine War was going on, America was helping Israel like crazy, American ships were wandering all over the Mediterranean, America's missiles were helping to stop the attack by Iran, and the American fleet had landed there because things were complicated in Taiwan, American defense expenditures had fallen. Or are you crazy? So I'm sure it will come back. In other words, the American state shrank in defense and grew by only 0.3% outside of defense. There is a 2% growth in local governments. I'm very confident that this number will change, and when this number changes, there are probably data flow delays here. That's how this thing works anyway. So we know that there were many mistakes in the first version. Because this data is incomplete, not collected, reports are not received, etc.

It's a 17-page report, but our memorizers are only acting on the headline that's on Twitter or on Bloomberg at that moment. We need to look at this detail. I'm sure none of them are looking and they say the economy in America is slowing down. Even if all these numbers are correct, for example, if there is still a growth of 1.6 in 3 revisions, this does not mean stagflation. Because in stagflation, the economy must have started to shrink. There is growth here again, but America has also experienced shrinkage in certain quarters in the past. It is very likely that there will be revisions, especially the region where this will come, regarding government expenditures, and growth will probably exceed 2-3% again. Even though it remains at 1.6%, this does not mean shrinkage.

Now, stagflation also means high inflation. In other words, on the one hand, there must be economic contraction, and on the other hand, there must be high inflation. Inflation in America is currently 3.8%, so in many different cases, CPI is different, COR is different, but no indicator is above 4. With an inflation of around 3-4%, which is not increasing. It's a little stuck, I'll state the items again and even if these numbers are correct with a positive growth, don't forget that the inflation data will be updated later. Let's put that aside, we are talking about growth data, even if these numbers are correct, there is no stagflation. But they love to throw this headline, stagflationary data has arrived.

Look, I don't claim that there will never be stagflation in America. But if you are a little logical, there is another data set in today's data flow, employment. The number of open job seekers, that is, those who have been looking for a job for a long time, is one of the lowest data ever. The weekly number of new unemployment claims came in super low. There is no problem with unemployment data. I see that economic growth continues and consumers continue to consume. There is some problem in exports due to the exchange rate difference. There is no problem with import. The only place that is shrinking is government spending, but I'm tired of the nonsense that the economy is shrinking in America while employment is also strong.

If a data set that you have mastered in detail arrives and the stock market panics in that data set, sometimes it may be true panic, but first we will try to look at what the meaning of this data set is. There are people who share its meaning. You won't panic. Because in panic they take the shares from your hands. What did they do yesterday? They opened Nasdaq in minus with 1.6%. A bunch of stocks are also positive, Nvidia up 3.65%, Tesla up 4.28%. The second issue is balance sheets. They made a fuss and dropped Meta stock by 15% the day before. Yesterday, the stock had recovered from 11% to 10% at one point. It closed the day with a decrease of less than 10% and then you will see that the stock will start to go up again.

Because if you are a sane person and want to be a Meta investor, you should like what you hear in the long term. The company you are a partner of is striving to be the best in the world in artificial intelligence. Zuckerberg had a great speech. He says that Lama 3 is currently superior to GPT and that we will spend this much money on it and invest like this. These idiots made me sell shares. That's why you need to know your company. I mean, I always state this, but I think I don't state it enough. That's why it might be a good idea to use Seeking Alpha. Know what you're investing in. Don't invest in the stock price, invest in the company, then such things become noise. They will force me to become a Meta investor because of the nonsense they announce.

Another issue is inflation. Let me also mention that. On this inflation issue, dishonest people who do not look at a single inflation report or line say that there is high inflation in America. Economic growth is already continuing, but there is no problem with inflation. bls.gov news you will go here, you will not believe these idiots, you will see food at home last month inflation is zero, one of the most important inflation items affecting the citizens, food away from home is 0.3, this is a bit high. The effect of eating out on inflation is 5.35, but when we look at it, it has increased a lot over the months, so we do not have a fatal situation. This month it was high, last month it was 0.1. So the month before that was 0.5. It's just a matter of playing around, it's not a big deal. There is 1.5% inflation in energy commodities. The previous month it was 3.6%. The month before that was - 3.2. Because the world determines the price of energy commodities, not America. Inflation in energy services is 0.7. Multiply 0.7 by 12 sounds like a high item.

But when you look at the details of energy services, inflation in gas services is actually zero. There has been an increase in electricity prices this month and it fluctuates between 0.7 - 0.2 - 0.3 - 0.9. But when you look at the total energy, inflation in the upper item has decreased from 1.1 to 2.3. When you look at other products, the total of all products, aside from energy products, inflation is - 0.2. Put everything in it - clothing, household goods, shoes, cars - total inflation - 0.2. This is the area where the FED will intervene the most. Where is inflation? I've said it 10 times, there's rent, there's car insurance, and this month there's health. Now, if you know this information and repeat it over and over again, you will laugh if someone tells you that inflation is too high in America.

Because the FED cannot intervene, that is, the FED cannot intervene in car insurance, there is nothing you can do to raise the interest rate as much as you want. Because there are no mechanics left in America. Maintenance costs for cars, especially electric cars, are very high when they get into an accident. Also, there were many disasters in America, especially in 2022. At that time, when cars were damaged a lot, insurance companies took action to protect themselves. This has nothing to do with interest. In other words, they claim that the FED will not be able to reduce the interest rate after yesterday's data, and this is priced in. Inflation is already low in all the items that could reduce the interest rate of the FED. People love talking about these gaps and it's actually nice. Good buying opportunities for us too. What did they say to us? How many Teslas would it be? We were going to die for $60, $80, $70, $50. Let's see what he did, did he die?

I said the balance sheet will be bad. The balance sheet was bad. There may be a surprise item on the balance sheet, maybe gross profit. Gross profit surprised. We are committed to Elon Musk's speech. I mean, you never know, Elon, but I feel motivated. Elon is super motivated, study your homework, you know there are not many surprises in the stock market. In other words, the stock market may have speculation surprises like what Meta did the other day. But they will come back and if you know your company well, there is no problem. If I say I know my company well, if I know its balance sheet and its numbers, that's great. These types of balance sheet trades are futile. We knew that Meta's balance sheet would be extraordinary. We thought he would make great explanations about artificial intelligence. But they took the stock down 15% as it increased its investment in artificial intelligence by a total of $2 billion.

We have no chance of beating Wall Street in short-term trades. They already make their trades after closing time. We cannot do anything. The men have all kinds of weapons in their hands. Once they have the options market, they can short it. After that, they do these things for huge amounts of money. So we can't handle it. They can also manipulate directly. So they change the data. Reuters said two weeks ago that Tesla has given up on the economy car. Has he given up? No. Has Reuters apologized for this? No. Did it make a lot of people panic at the time? Yes. In other words, you have no chance to act with stranger's data and knowledge. You must know what you are doing. Make time for this.

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