There was a meeting of the European Central Bank last week. At the end of the meeting, there was Lagarde's presentation and question and answer session. Even Ms. Lagarde said this. If future trade tensions do not make a difference, she says the path ahead is like this. I mean, even the person at the head of the European Central Bank sees that there is uncertainty there and tries to keep it separate. Now, the world was unprepared in the previous time with Trump 1.0. But this time, as far as I can see, the world is prepared. China has restricted the export of gallium and another rare metal, not rare but still rare, and two metals whose biggest supplier is China, and these materials are always used in new technologies. Now, a step is coming in advance, showing teeth, and in a news report last week, it was said that extra taxes could be applied to Canadian oil sold from Canada to America. They even set a condition according to the news report that if Trump imposes taxes on Canada, we will do the same. When you look back, almost 50% of the oil, especially in the agricultural areas we call the Midwest of America, is Canadian oil. Canadian oil is a bit thick oil and the refineries that buy it can only buy it. The system needs to be changed completely in order to process the thin oil, which we call Light Sweet Crude Oil, American oil.

Therefore, such a thing will not happen. In other words, the men actually need that oil. Therefore, Trump or America will not be able to run around as they wish. Because now the opposing nations show that they have strong cards. Politicians are like that, they say a lot in advance, they will do it, it will be done, but after they are elected, some do not want to do it themselves, some do not let them do it for various reasons. Some would not be economical anyway, so it would not be reasonable to do it. Now, I think things are shifting to that. He probably will not be able to impose sanctions as strong as he claims, as much as he says. Because these would cause a real price jump, a jump in inflation, which he would never want. On the other hand, in real terms, in foreign relations, situations may develop that will harm and damage not only trade relations but also political relations between countries. So, to tell you the truth, I do not think it will have as serious consequences as feared in the reports. I accept that something will definitely happen, but it seems to me that there will not be as many problematic situations as feared. Everything is very integrated with each other. Trump's imposition of sanctions on only Canada and China does not directly affect them. They go and do it to other countries. This is a very chain reaction.

We are in a period when Nasdaq and S&P 500 are breaking records one after another, and generally when a new record is broken, instead of selling in this overbought situation, trades made in the direction of it breaking and going up have statistically yielded more returns. Therefore, this is a very good logic until it is not. Frankly, there is no other indicator of this. Therefore, we are still in a period when markets tend to go up, growth is like a lion. However, we need to see that their valuations are inflated, but I think the most fundamental factor, the strongest factor that will affect the stock market here is interest. Because when we look at the American 10-year bond, we are above 4.30, it seems like it will go towards 4.40. In fact, I see people talking and writing about 4.6 in various places. Even during the period when the interest rate hike cycle was up, that is, when we were in the process of increasing interest rates, it was just above 5.

Now we are in a cycle of interest rate cuts, inflation is trying to increase slightly, but according to some reports I have read, the upward movement of inflation is expected to end with the November and December inflation data in the analyst universe. I do not think it is very likely that interest rates will go too high. I am short on bonds, in other words, I think interest rates will go up. In fact, Lagarde also said that the direction is very clear, it is just not clear how fast or slow the process will be. I think this is also valid for America, the direction is very clear. That is why interest rates are rising, and the dynamics have not yet developed in a way that will reduce interest rates too much. That is why I carry my short position, in other words, I carry the upward direction of interest rates. But when things change, I am thinking of reversing this.

It is very difficult to make a projection right now, besides, we also need to think about this. After the end of next week, liquidity in the market will start to seriously withdraw, Christmas, Christmas. In such times, my experience shows that while the market is coming there in many instruments, it puts a little more pressure on the side where the momentum is, it usually does not reverse. Because if you reverse, the grandfathers who carried the position to that point have already gone on vacation, but they leave guards and crush you. Therefore, in order not to attract the grandfathers, everyone pushes their positions in the direction of momentum, those who are still trading, and stops the small and weak ones. So when we look at it, maybe there is a downward trend in parity, I don't know about gold, gold is a bit controversial, but there is an upward trend in interest rates, and indices are controversial, as interest rates increase, there will be weakness in indices. Indices may weaken a little more as interest rates increase, but the cycle is still showing upwards.

Warren Buffett is a very big person, he has very deep pockets. The fact that he is closing positions is good current news for us. Because he is a smart person. He may not sell Apple because it is saturated here, or he may sell it. But the real goal is the guy who will invest in bonds with that money. I mean, there is almost 4.5% interest, let's put ourselves in his shoes. I mean, there is a portfolio of 100 billion dollars, I sell Apple worth 350 million dollars and put it on the other side for interest, this is nothing. In other words, I think Warren Buffett's move is not a defensive move but rather a shift towards more security in the portfolio. Oh, of course, there is this, the guy is a really good investor. He looks at the financials, the balance sheets, and predicts that there may be a correction here. This does not mean a collapse, he is actually realizing his profit somewhere.

Among the things that may come to the fore next year, India was the story of the previous years, then it calmed down. But again, I think India will do well. I evaluate that its growth may be good. That's why we should keep in mind that there are Indian influences in America, this is the first one. It is not possible to buy shares directly from everywhere, but on an etf basis or what they call ADR, Chinese stocks traded in America with American certificates or Chinese etfs. China interests me because they have been constantly saying in the managers' meetings for two years that they will support it and that they will focus on growth that year. But the conjuncture is always against them, but they are constantly supporting the market, trying to stimulate it. Interest rate cuts are coming, now there will probably be a reduction in reserve ratios, there are incentives, etc. I can see that it can be a little more positive there. That's why I think it can be carried on an etf basis or more on technology stocks.

After the market sold the euro - dollar and brought it to 1.05, it wanted to go up a little. I could see that in the consolidation there. If the dynamics allowed a little, there would be a technical correction up to 1.08 - 1.07 very easily, and then a tight downward movement from there. Without it, it is coming now but I think being short and increasing the shorts a little more in a controlled manner can reward you with serious returns in the next 3-6 months. 1 is a psychological level but there is no problem, it had reached 0.96-0.98 in the recent past. So it can come again, it is debatable whether it will be permanent. Because we should not forget that Donald Trump is a man who comes from the business world and he knows very well what a strong dollar can do and what it will negatively affect. That is why one day in the future, the euro will rise again after certain levels. In other words, he will say that the European Union is over below 1 and mislead those who believe in that. We should be careful about that.

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