I wrote that 2026 would be like a steroid-fueled 2025, and that's how we would start the year. Frankly, I didn't expect it to happen so quickly, but in the very first week of the year, Trump did it again and, in a selective operation, snatched a country's president from his own country. There are so many aspects to discuss about this event that it's hard to know where to begin. Well, we have to start somewhere. First of all, this event went down in history as the arrest of a head of state by the armed forces of another state without any war taking place. As if Venezuela didn't exist as a state. Then, Trump's statements must have shaken other Central and South American states, especially Cuba. Another aspect of the event is that a head of state, arrested as a result of a military operation due to drug trafficking, was taken along with his wife. One has to think about it; if you were in the place of US officials, would you take the man and his wife together, or just the man at the center of the accusations? Questions upon questions…

It doesn't take much intelligence to understand that the cause-and-effect relationship here isn't, as mentioned, related to the drug issue. The story here isn't just about oil, as initially thought. Yes, the oil market will be greatly affected, but in the long term. And the main issue isn't just oil. Let's put oil aside for a moment; Venezuelan oil is much thicker than easily processed American crude oil, more expensive to process, and not every refinery can handle it. Therefore, it's a very specific business. Furthermore, the country, burdened by sanctions for years, lacked the economic power to invest in its oil refineries. Consequently, the refineries are old and poorly maintained. Therefore, they cannot operate at full capacity. In response, Trump said American companies would invest in Venezuela. However, this isn't so easy. For American oil companies, the Permian Basin is a region where the biggest profits are made, and an oil company that wants to continue growing naturally wants to invest in this region. Would it want to use the capital it would invest there in Venezuela? It's a double-edged sword…

All the reports stated that Venezuela sits on approximately 300 billion barrels of reserves. The general consensus was that oil supply would increase significantly and prices would fall. But that's not how it works, of course. First of all, it's said that even with the investment mentioned above, it will take several years for the refineries to become fully operational, which I think is true. Furthermore, according to oil market strategists who have been physically present in the region, Venezuela's oil fields are places where access to oil is quite costly. Therefore, it's necessary to evaluate whether extracting that oil is economically feasible. Ultimately, when looking at the oil market, it's important to remember that many of the things discussed are abstract concepts. Another perspective that isn't abstract is that the US now controls the channel to China, the largest buyer of Venezuelan oil. For now, it's being said that Chinese officials have been informed that shipments will not be disrupted, but President Trump could try to turn this situation into leverage at any moment.

Venezuela must have very fertile lands. We read that it has very significant lithium and rare earth element reserves. The fact that the US has gained control of these resources shows that the US has achieved a significant advantage against China, which is said to possess the world's largest reserves. There is undoubtedly a significant amount of misinformation and lack of information here, but it seems that Trump, before taking Greenland, first gained control of another resource-rich country, thus securing leverage against China. Venezuela possesses significant freshwater reserves in addition to its underground wealth. Water wars aren't currently on the agenda, but they seem likely to become one in the coming years, and the US has already seized a significant above-ground resource in this regard. It appears that Cuba, perhaps other South American countries, Greenland, and maybe Canada will be some of the topics we will discuss at various times around 2025 (or 2026), a time I refer to as "steroid-filled 2025."