United States inflation data has been published. It was a little higher than I expected. It even rose slightly above expectations, but the market didn't care. I'll tell you why he didn't mind. When the market opened, the direction was slightly upward. When the market first opened after the data, Nasdaq was up 0.69%. Let's take a look at the details of what is the reason. Let's see some numbers first. Core inflation came to 0.4% month on month, the expectation was 0.3, we stayed above it. Core inflation came to 3.8% annually, the expectation was 3.7, again above the target. But the downward trend continued and we have reached 3.8 from 3.9. As for headline inflation, we reached 3.2 annually. However, the expectation was 3.1. The previous period was also 3.1. There is an increase here. The headline inflation target was 0.4 per month. So how can it meet the target on a monthly basis but not on a yearly basis? It's from the fractions, so they don't show the fractions here. The stock market did not take this seriously. In other words, he said, our inflation is still low. Remember, the FED's target is 2%. But this target is the 2025 target. It is currently going within the framework of its goals. Plus interest rates are already quite high. It is certain that there will be no interest rate increase again.

But will the interest rate drop come in March? I think the FED will probably not reduce interest rates using this. Well, let's look at the details. Now food was a bit of a bug for us last month. This month, we see that inflation in eating from home has been reset from month to month. Great news: Inflation in eating out of the house has dropped to 0.1% per month. It was 0.5 before. So there is no problem with food, the American consumer is of course very interested in food, and politicians are also very interested in food. We predicted that inflation in energy would rise this month. Because there was a 7-8% increase in oil prices. Indeed, when we look at it reflected here, there is a 3.6% increase in energy commodities. Energy commodities have been seriously affected. Of course, there is also a 1.1% increase in energy services. For comparison, energy services last month was -4.5% and energy commodities -0.9%. Their multipliers are also large. They affected inflation quite a bit. But again, this is an issue that the market does not care about. Because they know that the FED does not look at energy prices and has no savings regarding this. Energy prices are determined in global markets and have nothing to do with interest rates.

When we look at the commodity side, inflation in commodities except food and energy is 0.1. So if you annualize this, it comes to 1.2. Again, we have an extremely good number. Inflation in second-hand vehicles is 0.5, which is one of the items that surprises me. However, the prices of cars seemed to be falling. There is a 0.6% increase in clothing. This may also have something to do with seasonality. Inflation in medical care products is still below the expected target of 0.1, so there is no problem with this. The most surprising issue is housing. You know, I focused a lot on housing. Especially considering what landlords will say, but housing in general came in at 0.4. The previous month was 0.6. Frankly, it's a good thing it turned out this way. Because inflation in energy prices and transportation services, which energy prices mainly reflect, reached 1.4%. The escalation in these two was resolved by the softening in rents. When we talk about rents, we will go into detail. Landlords have actually softened, and on the other hand, medical services have become cheaper, which also makes me happy. I wasn't expecting this, for example. I thought the rise might continue here. So, it seems like things have actually turned upside down. I predicted the climb in energy. We have no problem with that, but I did not expect a decrease in rents and medical services. There has been a decline there. So it seems like they compensated for each other a little bit.

Let's look at the tables in more detail. When we look at the large multipliers, food at home has a 13% effect, inflation is zero. This is one of the issues that may concern you the most. The effect of eating outside the home is 5.38, the inflation multiplier is 0.1 this month. So it's like it doesn't exist. 0.1 means 1.2 per year. We are satisfied with 2.5 or 2. So even if it is 0.2 - 0.3, it doesn't seem like anything to worry about. The multiplier effect of energy commodities is 3.4, so it is not super high, but it has a relatively effective effect. We see that it comes to 3.6. Likewise, energy services 3.1. We see that it is also 0.8. The sum of the two, energy commodities and services, affects inflation at 6.6 out of 100, and the number there is high. It already seems to have disrupted inflation a bit. When it comes to products, excluding food and energy, inflation is 0.4. When you look at it like this, you get worried about what's going on here. You need to look at the details. When we exclude food and energy from products, the inflation of commodities is only 0.1. We have no problem here.

The problem exists in two places. One of them was clothing last month - 0.7, this month it is plus 0.6. The discount season is probably over in America. I interpret that new season products are slowly entering. Other than that, I have no explanation for this. I know that America mainly buys its clothing from China and there are actually cheap prices there. Likewise, on the shoe side, the previous month was -0.9, this month it was 1.6. The effect of shoes is 0.5 on inflation, and the effect of clothing is 2.5. So it has quite an impact. We conceded some goals from here. When we look at transportation, prices for new vehicles continue to decrease, unfortunately -0.1. There is a surprising inflation in second-hand vehicles, but this may be due to this. Look, last month - 3.4, this month it is 0.5 again. Maybe there is a correction coming here for the drop in prices last month, I don't know. In other words, the numbers can sometimes be so inconsistent that it is really difficult to make a decision from a single month.

But second-hand vehicle prices seem to have increased slightly. Inflation in medical care products is 0.1. We have no problem with that. Entertainment products - 0.2, sports products - 0.6, other entertainment products - 0.7, education and communication products - 0.2, this will reach 2.4 in two years, we have no problem. Alcoholic beverages are zero. Inflation in products such as cigarettes is 0.7. It has increased slightly, but the cumulative effect is around 1.37. In fact, it looks like we have scored a goal on the product side, on second-hand cars, and on clothing, especially on shoes. You know, it's either a seasonal issue or the return of last month's steep decline, the discounts are out. Maybe there were temporary discounts, but there are no terrible numbers here.

Let's get to the housing side of things. This place was surprising. The total shelter came to 0.4. Compared to a month ago, the impact of 0.6 housing units on inflation is very high, 36%. Therefore, the fact that this was low was obviously a great relief. So if this was like last month, it would be quite a nightmare inflation. With the addition of energy, the increase in rents is 0.5. There is a slight upward trend here, but it is compensated for in two places. Inflation for accommodation outside fell from 1.8 to 0.1. Possibly school holidays are over in America. New Year's Eve has passed. That's why inflation seems a little lower here. People are going to hotels less. And the best part is that the homeowners have become a little more merciful. They gave 0.6 the previous month. This month it came back to 0.4. The impact of this alone is 26%. We took it from there. Why did they relent? I don't know if they played with the index again. But this was very good. If it came this high, everything could fall apart.

Because there is no decrease in the inflation in the tenants' normal rent declarations, but even an increase in the Primary Residence. I predicted this too. I told you that the rentals are not very accessible. Thank God the hosts saved the game here. Medical care services were one of the items that upset us. We see a serious regression there. It decreased from 0.7 to -0.1. Another place where we lose goals is transportation services. Transportation services were 1 in the previous month, this month it was 1.4. Where did we particularly score? Here, car and truck rentals have increased a lot, reaching 3.8%. I'm wondering about insurance here. The pace in insurance has slowed down a bit. It was again one of the issues we were worried about. That's also reassuring, public transportation went from 1.3 to 2.3. Airlines increased from 1.4 to 3.6. We can explain this with oil prices. The impact of entertainment services on inflation increased by 3.2%, 0.5%. It's not that important. Education and communication services have increased. Other personal services remained at reasonable levels.

Let's also take a look at the summary tables. The American Statistical Institute also provides us with good summaries. Let me make my final comment from there. There is a basic item there that frankly surprised me. Here until now, housing has always fallen from all items, inflation was around 0.1, but it jumped to 0.5. So we have a serious leap here. Let's remember again the items behind this. We have lost a serious energy goal. We have conceded a goal from clothing items. We have conceded a goal from 0 kilometer cars. And also transportation services. So these are the items and transportation services and energy already move in parallel. If this clothing issue is a seasonal issue, we actually don't have very bad numbers.

As I mentioned before, inflation may exceed expectations. But the market's reaction will not be very negative unless something very extreme happens. There is nothing so extreme, it was played with fractions, actually the numbers are a little bit. Still, of course, the rate of decline in inflation has slowed down, especially in the core. We even went up a little in the headline again. It's not nice, but I think the market won't be too upset about this until March. It is necessary to see the month of March. If the inflation curve does not turn downward again in March, there will be some trouble. But it seems temporary for now. As far as I know, energy prices have been more or less stable since the beginning of March. So next month there will be no inflation. Unfortunately, rents do not decrease, but since the perspective of landlords has changed, it balances the housing side from there. So nothing too scary. I wish it were better, but that's the way things are for now. I continue to remain long in my positions in the market.

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