NVIDIA and OpenAI Announce Funding Agreement

NVIDIA and OpenAI Announce Funding Agreement


NVIDIA may have inadvertently placed a valuation anchor on a completely different group of assets. NVIDIA provided a "value guarantee" of up to $105 billion for OpenAI's data center in Ohio. The facility is owned by SB Energy (SoftBank), the tenant is OpenAI, and the guarantor is NVIDIA. This means that if OpenAI leaves, NVIDIA is holding the bottom of the value of the land, power, and building for 20 years.

$105 billion ÷ 4,250 MW = a ceiling guarantee of $24.7 million per MW. One analyst (Matthew Sigel) pointed out that this figure is almost identical to the cost of the non-chip portion of a data center: land, transformers, grid connectivity, and the building shell. In essence, NVIDIA is telling the market: "A site with ready electricity and land – a powered shell – will still be worth serious money even after 20 years." Chips become obsolete. But land, power connectivity, and transformers are scarce and permanent. Replacing them is both expensive and can take years.

So who already owns such "powered shell" assets? Bitcoin miners. Companies like $WULF and $HUT are currently leasing portions of these shells to host AI, and the market is currently pricing them with almost zero residual value, as if those shells will be useless once the leases expire. Look, I've been saying for months that the last and most congested link in the capex chain is energy and land. This news confirms it, and from a completely unexpected source.

NVIDIA may have inadvertently placed a terminal value framework on "powered shell" assets. If this logic holds, miners holding these assets, especially companies like $WULF, $HUT, and even $CIFR, could become overlooked and undervalued re-rating candidates. But I'm cautious about two things:

One: That $24.7M/MW figure is a ceiling. The actual guaranteed minimum value hasn't been announced yet. We need to see the details with the upcoming 10-Q meeting this month, and the thesis will be truly tested with that figure.

Two: This is a "framework" argument. It says, "These assets aren't worth nothing." It doesn't say, "They're definitely worth this much." The direction makes sense to me, but the magnitude is still speculative. On top of that, mining stocks are already quite volatile. You can't enter without taking that into account.

In short, the headline says "NVIDIA–OpenAI funding." But there could be something much bigger between the lines: the repricing of land + energy + grid connectivity in the AI ​​age. I think that's the real story.

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