According to the US Treasury's "Federal Financial Conditions" report, there is a significant problem. A detailed look at the social security deficits and actuarial projections reveals that the burden on the elderly is increasing in both retirement and health and supplemental health insurance. In short, the US has an aging population problem. Public debt, currently around 100%, is projected to reach 200% in 2050 and 500% in 2090. These figures are based on 2024 data. Beyond this impact on the social security system, another noteworthy point is the exponential increase in interest expenses compared to non-interest expenses. The budget shows a deficit of roughly $40 trillion, with assets of $5.6 trillion and liabilities of $45.5 trillion. The amount of gold held remains at $11 billion (equivalent to 8,133 tons of gold according to the World Gold Council), similar to the Nixon era of 1971 (fiscal.treasury.gov, ET:2026).

This is where bonds come into play. With China as the seller, who will buy its bonds? Of the approximately $27.7 trillion in securities, $7.1 trillion is held by its own residents, with senior citizens and (military) pension funds (SSA, DOD, OPM) holding more than half. The Fed's balance sheet already includes mortgage-backed securities and bonds at around 95%. Its accumulated losses from these bonds are estimated at $855 billion as of September 2025 (Fed, 2025). While the figures for the Cayman Islands, Ireland, and Luxembourg have remained stable over the past year, the UK has overtaken China. Israel has increased its position from $82 billion to $105.7 billion (ticdata.treasury.gov). Following the Lehman Brothers crisis and COVID-19, the amount of bonds held by non-residents (non-natives) reached a record high of $9.27 trillion, representing approximately 35% of GDP, but has now fallen to 30% (fred.stlouisfed.org, ET:2026).

Strategic oil reserves, which were close to 750 million barrels in 2008, were halved during the Biden administration to reduce inflation, and currently stand at only 415 million barrels (eia.gov, ET:2026).

The price of gold per ounce should be considered in light of this information. Gold-backed certificates on the Fed's balance sheet have been non-tradable since 1971. The Treasury's borrowing has also been unstoppable since then. If interest rates are to become the main problem while non-interest expenditures remain flat in the budget, let's put the pieces of the puzzle together. The pressure on Powell to lower interest rates, the investigations into governors, the prosecutor's request for an explanation from the Fed regarding the deviation in the building renovation budget (and the subsequent video counterattack from the independent Fed) are all due to this. This is happening while the economy is failing to recover as the midterm elections approach, and putting pressure on the Treasury's interest burden. The Fed has cornered the Treasury; if it doesn't buy its bonds, who will? By claiming independence, it can influence both domestic and foreign policy. Because the dollar is its own currency, but it's a global problem (dollarization). While world trade is projected to reach $24.5 trillion in 2024, Asia's share has increased by 31%, while North America's has decreased by 12%. Even in the best-performing product groups, the US is only third in exports (WTO, 2026).

Trump, seeing interest expenses and the budget deficit as unsustainable, is trying to address this with tariffs. This isn't just to curb China; he's saying, if you can't reduce expenses, increase revenue. He's not going to do this by broadening the tax base for his own citizens as he heads into a midterm election, is he? Let's talk about oil. Venezuela and Iran, which are among the top three in oil reserves, need to be considered in light of the information above. The issue isn't just about cutting off China's oil purchases or putting Russia in a difficult position beyond sanctions. The Fed itself is in a difficult position in terms of reserves. Is it just oil reserves? The Fed's balance sheet shows foreign exchange reserves equivalent to $19.5 billion. It has even fallen into negative reserves. Its capital is $40 billion. The amount of reverse repurchase agreements held by national banks has fallen to zero; it had risen to $2.5 trillion after the pandemic. Only $320 billion remains in reverse repurchase agreements held by foreigners. With liquidity drying up so much in the market, commercial bank losses from bonds amount to $300 billion. Seeing and knowing all this, Trump is trying to consolidate his power by creating "chaos". It's possible to predict this using fractal geometry. If it's resilient, agile, and strong, then it's the opposite of chaos.