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My Nvidia and Amazon Balance Sheet Expectations


Nvidia's balance sheet is an important balance sheet. Because Nvidia is now the new Apple. We used to look at Apple. We used to wonder what Apple would bring. Apple was replaced by Nvidia. In fact, remember, in the last balance sheet period, Apple delivered a rather mediocre balance sheet. Normally, when Apple delivers a mediocre balance sheet, a stock market would crash or the stock market goes bad, Apple's balance sheet comes last, and is left to the end. They would pick it up from there and come back, Apple was such a legend. Now he can't quite fulfill his legendary role. Nvidia has taken its place, and the direction of Nvidia's balance sheet will affect us all. So let's see what the expectations are for Nvidia's balance sheet. By the way, I'm looking at these balance sheets on Seeking Alpha. The market value of the company reached 2.15 trillion dollars. It is currently the third most valuable company in the world, after Microsoft and Apple, and is extremely close to catching up with Apple. It has returned 71.28% since the beginning of the year. It is one of those that has a share in my portfolio. I caught the serious part of this rally. But compared to the beginning of the year, I still have 25% of my portfolio. So I sold nearly 75% of it in good places. At the point I sold it, it was over $900. My thought was that there is still a $1000 upward opportunity, but there are cheap stocks out there right now, so I would go for them. It is debatable whether it was the right decision or the wrong decision, but this was the logic.

Price earnings ratio Forward 35.12 is not too bad. The balance sheet comes on May 22. If I'm not mistaken, it comes after Apple. So we can say that we will close with Nvidia. Turnover expectation is 24.31 billion dollars. The balance sheet in the previous quarter was 22 billion dollars. I think you will feel comfortable. TSMC's balance sheet released today also confirmed this. TSMC's balance sheet said that there is a serious demand, especially for high-tech chips, that is, 3 nanometers and 5 nanometers. There is a category called high performance, called hpc, where they have the fastest chips, the demand there is very strong. The demand for mobile phone chips has decreased slightly, but the demand on this side is very strong. That demand basically comes from Nvidia, and I think there are many companies still waiting for chips from Nvidia. That's why I believe that they will have no difficulty in meeting this turnover forecast and may even exceed it.

They projected earnings per share of $5.14 per share at stability, last quarter's earnings were $4.93. Now this company has such a gross profit that there is a gross profit of 72.72%. Therefore, when he can increase his turnover a little, his bottom line profit also improves a lot. So, in this case, if it increases the turnover from 22 billion dollars to 24 billion dollars, I think there will be no problem in increasing the profitability from 4.93 to 5.14 per share. Recently, all of Wall Street has viewed the stock positively. Earnings per share revisions have always been upward. They have received 35 revisions recently. All of them are on the upside, so I'm sure Nvidia won't have any problems with the balance sheet. I have no concerns about Nvidia's future statements. The CEO is Jensen Huang, who knows how to package and explain such things very well. I think they will present a good balance sheet and their future statements will be good.

If everything goes reasonably, I think Nvidia will move towards a 1000 dollar, 1100 dollar attack with a good balance sheet. We heard what he would actually say in this balance sheet meeting at the last developer conference. You know their technology, new b200 chips are coming. I guess we will hear some more clarification of the price and clarification of the timing there. We will also listen to how Nvidia is creating new things vertically, expanding beyond the classical GPU market it is currently in, to areas such as humanoid robots and autonomous driving vehicles. I think they will create a good hype. Nvidia is not very expensive either, if we look at the valuation. Of course, it is not cheap, so when you look at it, the valuation comes to F, but forward-looking price-earnings is 36.68 and remember, being forward-looking means that it shrinks at this rate as the profit expectation of this company increases. The industry average is 27.02, which is only 35% above the industry.

Therefore, I think there may be a long way to go. When you look at PEG GAAP, price divided by earnings divided by growth over the last 12 months is the most important indicator in these types of companies. It is only 0.12, 90% below the industry average of 1.1. PEG forward is 0.96, well below the industry average of 1.82. There is a high probability that Nvidia will be positive and even though the valuation is F in seeking alpha, that is, in the top item, actually when we look at the sub-items, the stock does not seem expensive to me, especially in terms of forward-looking growth. Because growth is great, profitability is great, momentum is great. Everything is in its place at Nvidia. That's why I'm extremely positive. Of course, it is difficult to know what the stock market's reaction will be. But I think there will be a good balance sheet.

I have positions in both Nvidia and Amazon. By the way, Amazon is a position I opened relatively recently. I don't have a very large position, but it is one of the positions I want to expand. Amazon brought 74.67% in the last year. It has a very good return. When we look at it since the beginning of the year, it has a return of 18.11%, which is 1/3 of Nvidia. I don't think there's any chance that Amazon won't have a good balance sheet. When we look at the expectations, there is a lower turnover expectation than last quarter. The reason for this is, as you know, Amazon is in the retail industry. In retail, the last quarter of the year in America is super busy due to Christmas shopping. Therefore, a decrease in turnover is expected, from 169 billion dollars to 142 billion dollars.

In terms of stability per share, a decline from 1 dollar to 0.83 is expected. There is one factor that will negatively affect this per share stability. They are partners in Rivian and the decline in Rivian's stock reflects negatively here. But since its share of the total Amazon size is relatively limited, its impact will be small. I also think that Amazon can achieve both of these goals. Retail data in America is coming very strong. One of the issues that is currently challenging the stock markets is the excessive strength of retail. So business is good, sales are good. Therefore, it seems quite possible that Amazon will continue to do well.

When we look at the valuation, D minus seems cheaper than Nvidia. When I look at it item by item, I see Nvidia as more advantageous. But it is also worth saying this. Throughout my life I have always found Amazon expensive and Amazon has continued to rise. For example, PEG non-GAAP forward 1.86 seems to be above the industry average. Price divided by earnings is 43.72, which is 83% above the industry average or online retail. So Amazon is never a cheap stock. But Amazon is an innovative company. He can always find new growth opportunities for himself and that's why he can continue without any problems.

If we ask what we will pay attention to in Amazon this quarter, we know that Amazon has several business lines. There is online shopping. In that business, the first quarter is always smaller than the last quarter. We expect a shrinkage here. The issue that excites us here is advertising revenues. Amazon is transforming into a serious advertising company, and its advertising revenue increase shocked the market in the previous quarter. There was a 27% increase. We are waiting for this with great interest. So we are very curious about what will happen in advertising revenue. We are also waiting for what will happen in AWS cloud services. If it can maintain this double-digit growth and increase in advertising revenues compared to the same quarter a year ago, I think Amazon stock will go up.

But when I compare Nvidia with Amazon, I see that Nvidia is stronger on the balance sheet between the two. I believe that Amazon will have a stronger balance sheet and stronger forward expectations. But I long to feel in both. The reason I'm long on Amazon is not this balance sheet period. Normally, if you are a player in this retail sector, it would be beneficial to stay away from the balance sheets in the first quarters. The reason I'm long term is on Amazon. I think these guys are the company that will make money from artificial intelligence in the clearest and fastest way. I watched a video. The video was amazing about how they use robots in their warehouse. So if you say robots, there are these guys, they are already partners in a large humanoid robot company. They will sell artificial intelligence as a service through this AWS.

They are the largest customer of B200 Nvidia microchips. They are building a very large data center where they will sell the cloud as a service. They will sell artificial intelligence from the cloud as a service, it works here. Artificial intelligence also helps direct ads more accurately. They manage online retail better by using big data. So, I think we will get the most concrete impact from artificial intelligence in this quarter. I think we'll get something very, very concrete from Amazon. This quarter, Amazon may have pleasant surprises in this direction, especially in the disclosure section. That's why I'm tall on Amazon too. But you know, my feelings for Amazon and my feelings for Nvidia are not the same strength. It is worth mentioning this as we enter this quarter.

The information, comments and recommendations contained herein are not within the scope of investment consultancy. Investment consultancy services are provided within the framework of the investment consultancy agreement to be signed between brokerage firms, portfolio management companies, banks that do not accept deposits and customers. The comments in this article are only my personal comments and these comments may not be appropriate for your financial situation and risk return. For this reason, investments should not be made based on the information and comments in my articles.

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